891
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 03 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 13 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND
THE ALEUTIANS, WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES EXTENDING TO MAINLAND ALASKA, SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAKLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). IN
CONTRAST, A STRONG RIDGE AND ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
HAWAII WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF A PROLONGED ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FOR THE ISLAND
CHAIN.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THE GREAT LAKES, AND
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND WESTWARD TO MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS CONSISTENT
WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS DUE TO
PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF HAWAII DRIVEN LARGELY BY OBSERVED
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE MUTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION IN THE PERIOD. THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW IS ENHANCED INTO THESE AREAS. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FOR HAWAII AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND
CHAIN, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 17 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MEAN
PATTERN STILL FAVORS RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS, EXTENDING TO THE MAINLAND ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING OVER
THE EAST AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF ROBUST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII AT LEAST UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO STRONG
RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND DUE TO MODESTLY RISING HEIGHTS
FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST LATER IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN
70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DUE TO STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODESTLY ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
SHALLOW CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA DUE TO
POTENTIAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT LATER IN WEEK-2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL OBSERVED SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NORTHWARD
TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DUE TO STRONG RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH MARKEDLY ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THIS REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE
ALEUTIANS, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM A PREDICTED MEAN POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER FORECAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC
FLOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF WEEK-2, CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20110413 - 20150405 - 20200327 - 20070314 - 20090314
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20150405 - 20110413 - 20030402 - 20070317 - 20040318
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 13 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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