765
FXUS01 KWBC 040530
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
129 AM EDT SAT APR 04 2026
VALID 12Z SAT APR 04 2026 - 12Z MON APR 06 2026
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...
...RECORD WARMTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
POLAR AIR SURGES INTO THE PLAINS FOLLOWED BY FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY
MIX FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN U.S. ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRETCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT EXPANDING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DOWNWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF INDIANA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY, OHIO, LOWER MICHIGAN,
PENNSYLVANIA, AND NEW YORK. FURTHERMORE, WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
(WPC) HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS THE SYSTEM MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-4" WITH
RAIN RATES OF 2-2.5"/HR.
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND
ICING ACROSS NORTHERN U.S. INTO SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST BUT WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2"/HR IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX OVER
NORTHERN MAINE. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE PRECIPIATION IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO RAIN.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, CONTINUING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, AS INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR INCREASES. SPC HAS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY WITH A
PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT LINGERING OVER FLORIDA, CONTINUING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN U.S. WITH CHANCES FOR RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF OHIO VALLEY INTO MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PLAINS
INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY BETWEEN 40S AND 60S.
ON SUNDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARDS BEHIND THE
FRONT, WHILE MUCH OF WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUDIT
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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