277
FXUS02 KWBC 040647
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
VALID 12Z TUE APR 07 2026 - 12Z SAT APR 11 2026
..PATTERN OVERVIEW
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO
MAIN STREAMS. IN A STEADILY PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM, A LEADING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NATION TUESDAY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT AS AN ENERGETIC UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ON
IT'S HEELS FROM THE NORTHWEST U.S. TUESDAY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THESE WILL REINFORCE A WAVY FRONTAL POSITION OVER
THE GULF AND FLORIDA TO PROLONG A WET PATTERN. MEANWHILE, AN
EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER TROUGH/SYSTEM ENERGY
WILL SLOWLY WORK INLAND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH SOME SHOWERS BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AMPLE LEAD RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENT THEN OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MAY PORTEND A RE-EMERGING HEAVY RAINFALL PATTERN BY
NEXT WEEKEND THAT HAS SOME SIGNAL EVIDENT BEYOND THAT INTO WEEK 2
AS PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) THAT MAY OFFER BROAD
MODERATE AND HIGH RISK POTENTIAL TO MONITOR.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK,
BUT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF
SYSTEMS. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH DRIVES A DECENT SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK.
AFTER THIS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST AS RECENT CANADIAN/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN COMPARED TO THE BETTER
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. WPC PREFERRED THE SLOWER, MORE CLOSED,
SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS, ECMWF, AND EC-AIFS. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS WPC SHIFT PREFERENCES AND LATEST 00 UTC GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE CANADIAN THAT HAS TRENDED SIGNIFCIANTLY IN LINE WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED BLEND, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE BLEND FOR THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
PROGS WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF BEST CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE OF THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUIDANCE. APPILED MAJORITY BLEND WEIGHTING TO THESE MODELS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING MAJORITY WEIGHTING TO THESE
ENSEMBLE MEANS NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS PREDICTABILTY SLOWLY
DECREASES FROM AVOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. THIS MAINTAINS
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PRIOR WPC GUIDANCE AND CONSISTENT WITH THE NBM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A WAVY FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE PASSING OVER FLORIDA AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE THERE AND POSSIBLY INTO
GULF COASTAL AREAS. CONSISTENT WITH WPC DAY 3-7 PRODUCTS, THE WPC
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK NOW SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK AREA ON DAY
4/TUESDAY AND DAY5/WEDNESDAY FOR EASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA. A WET
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST GIVEN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY MAY BE
REINFORCED INTO LATER PERIOD WITH FLOW AMPLIFICATION.
FARTHER NORTH, THE NORTHEAST UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LINGERING LOWER LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WITH A ROUND OF RAIN AND
SNOW PASSING OVER THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. ANOTHER SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID-UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE, SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
ALOFT AND ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE. THEN AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD AND INTO THE WEST, LIFT AND POOLED MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO LATER NEXT WEEK,
INCLUDING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. THE SIGNAL IS INCREASING FOR
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST LATER NEXT WEEK AND ONWARD INTO CPC WEEK 2 TO MONITOR.
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PASSAGES AND COOLED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ONSETS AND SETTLING NEXT WEEK, THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. SHOULD
SEE PERIODS WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE WEST CAN EXPECT
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES UNDERNEATH UPPER
RIDGING FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL PRE-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST, WHILE THE WEST COAST CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL AS UPPER
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS WORK SLOWLY INLAND.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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