656
FOUS11 KWBC 041803
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
VALID 00Z SUN APR 05 2026 - 00Z WED APR 08 2026
..NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST, & WESTERN GREAT LAKES
DAY 1...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ONGOING TODAY WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING...
THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WHICH HAS PRODUCED OVER A FOOT OF SNOW
IN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MORE THAN 1/4 INCH OF ICE IN WISCONSIN
WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT WANE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z, WITH ALL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BY 12Z SUNDAY. SNOWFALL LINGERING
ACROSS NORTHERN MN AFTER 00Z WILL GENERALLY BE UNDERNEATH THE
REMNANT PIVOTING DEFORMATION BAND AS IT CROSSES MORE FIRMLY INTO
CANADA, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ON LAKE ENHANCEMENT INTO
THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI OVERNIGHT AS WELL. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN ANY
OF THESE SNOW AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AS THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FORCING PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST, LEADING TO JUST
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF JUST 2-4", HIGHEST IN
THE WESTERN U.P. DESPITE THIS MODEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION,
IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AFTER THIS
HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICING, WHICH ONLY COMPOUNDED IMPACTS
FROM THURSDAY'S SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS SYSTEM AND ARE LINKED BELOW
(KEY MESSAGES #2).
..NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DAY 1...
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND ASCENT
ISENTROPICALLY ATOP THE WARM FRONT, EXPANDING THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD BUT ALSO DRIVING A WARM NOSE >0C NORTHWARD AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS. THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z/SUNDAY TO 18Z/SUNDAY, DURING WHICH TIME A
MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODEST, BUT STILL PRODUCE IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL AS REFLECTED BY 20-40% CHANCE FOR MODERATE IMPACTS IN THE
WSSI-P, FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NH AND ME. WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW EXCEEDING 4" ARE JUST AROUND 10% ACROSS
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY, ME. FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND ALL OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT ICING EXCEEDING 0.1" IS EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO JUST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NH AND ME WHERE WPC
PROBABILITIES ARE 30-50%.
..GREAT LAKES
DAY 2...
A FAST MOVING AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA WILL
RACE SOUTHEAST AND CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY BEFORE
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN
MONDAY. ANY WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL MAY STAY JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION, BUT SUFFICIENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL DROP
850MB TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW -15C, SUFFICIENT FOR LATE SEASON LAKE
EFFECT SNOW (LES) AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ATOP THE SLOWLY WARMING
GREAT LAKES. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS CAA SOUTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN U.P. OF MI WHERE WPC
PROBABILITIES FOR 4+ INCHES ARE 50-70%.
WEISS
...WINTER STORM KEY MESSAGES ARE IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE CURRENT
KEY MESSAGES BELOW...
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/KEY_MESSAGES/LATESTKEYMESSAGE_2.PNG
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