131
FXUS02 KWBC 051819
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
VALID 12Z WED APR 08 2026 - 12Z SUN APR 12 2026
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER CLUSTERED, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND OF THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND EC-AIFS SOLUTIONS OFFERS A GOOD START FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. PREDICTABILITY DOES BROADLY REMAIN
BETTER THAN NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LOW ENTERING THE
SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER DROPPING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE
NORTHWEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN THE TIMING AND OF THESE
SYSTEMS AND ALSO ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST LOW AND
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS MORE SEPARATION THOUGH. THE WPC BLEND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WAS
WEIGHTED A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO HELP MITIGATE THE
SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES THAT CANNOT BE RESOLVED AT THESE TIME
SCALES. THIS APPROACH MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
WPC FORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE AS
WELL.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
FLOW OVER THE NATION THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO MAIN
STREAMS. AN ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND
DEEPENED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
MIDWEEK TO THE NORTHEAST/CANADIAN MARITIMES BY FRIDAY, SLICING
THROUGH LEADING AND COOLED HIGH PRESSURE. A SWATH OF MODERATE
RAINS, NORTHERN PERIPHERY SNOWS, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING IN THE GUIDANCE FOR A HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FOCUS ON THURSDAY ALONG THE FRONT FROM
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WENT AHEAD WITH A DAY 5/THURSDAY MARGINAL RISK IN THE ERO TODAY,
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST DAY 3-7 HAZARDS MAP AS WELL.
ANOTHER MAIN SYSTEM WELL UPSTREAM OFFERS TIMING/EMPHASIS
UNCERTAINTY WITH WEEKEND DIGGING AND MODEST RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW
TRACK INTO THE NORTHWEST.
MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, A LEAD/WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER THE GULF AND THROUGH FLORIDA SHOULD PROLONG A WET
PATTERN THIS WEEK WITH EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW FOCUSING ACTIVITY
OVER FLORIDA. THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK MAINTAINS A DAY
4/WEDNESDAY MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR EASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY THOUGH WITH
LESSER INTENSITY. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT TO A LESSER EXTENT
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GULF COASTAL AREAS, WITH SOME INCREASING FOCUS
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH LEADING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE WEST TO MONITOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY HEAT- UP
THROUGH LATER PERIOD RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT OUT FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S..
WELL UPSTREAM, AN UNSETTLING/COOLING EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL WORK SLOWLY INLAND TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH GROWING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AMPLE LEAD RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENT THEN OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MAY PORTEND AN EMERGING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT HAS SOME SIGNAL EVIDENT BEYOND
THAT INTO WEEK 2 AS PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). THIS
MAY OFFER BROAD MODERATE AND HIGH RISK POTENTIAL TO MONITOR.
SANTORELLI/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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