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FXUS06 KWBC 051902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN APRIL 05 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 15 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES A STRONG RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES EXTENDING TO MAINLAND ALASKA,
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAKLY
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS). IN CONTRAST, A STRONG RIDGE AND ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IS
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF A PROLONGED ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD
FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
AS THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXTEND WESTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A
TROUGH FORECAST OVER CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE ALEUTIANS DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A PREDICTED RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR OAHU, MAUI, AND THE BIG ISLAND, WHILE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER KAUAI, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEED 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW IS ENHANCED THERE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, THE
ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHEAST WHERE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR HAWAII AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 19 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MEAN
PATTERN STILL FAVORS RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS, EXTENDING INTO MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A
STRONG RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS DUE TO STRONG
RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODESTLY RISING HEIGHTS FORECAST
ACROSS THE WEST LATER IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 70
PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, DUE TO STRONG RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODESTLY
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED SHALLOW CYCLONIC FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO
PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY
FAVORED FOR KAUAI, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR OAHU, MAUI,
AND THE BIG ISLAND, SUPPORTED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
NORTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DUE TO STRONG RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50
PERCENT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH MARKEDLY ENHANCED SURFACE MOISTURE
FLOW INTO THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM A
PREDICTED MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER FORECAST OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII
UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC FLOW, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020413 - 20110413 - 20210321 - 20210330 - 20220318
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20110413 - 20210330 - 20040318 - 20090315 - 20020413
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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