624
FXUS02 KWBC 060728
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
VALID 12Z THU APR 09 2026 - 12Z MON APR 13 2026
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL, ENSEMBLE AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE STILL BROADLY OFFER
A REASONABLY SIMILAR LARGER SCALE MEDIUM-RANGE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
FORECAST SPREAD IN THE RECENT 12/18 UTC GUIDANCE CYCLE HAD
INCREASED MID-LATER THIS PERIOD WITH MORE VARIED TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SYSTEMS IN BOTH MAIN SPLIT STREAM FLOWS, BUT NEWER 00 UTC
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BACK INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. OVERALL NOW,
FAVOR A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH EMPHASIS ON GENERALLY BETTER COMPATIBLE
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS CENTRIC SOLUTION. THIS
FORECAST PLAN SEEMS IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
FLOW OVER THE NATION THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO MAIN
STREAMS. AN ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND
DEEPENED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST/CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY FRIDAY, SLICING THROUGH LEADING AND COOLED HIGH
PRESSURE. A SWATH OF MODERATE RAINS, NORTHERN PERIPHERY SNOWS, AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE. THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING IN
THE GUIDANCE FOR A HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FOCUS ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWED AND RETURN MOISTURE
POOLING TRAILING FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE A WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
DAY 4/THURSDAY AND DAY 5/FRIDAY MARGINAL RISK AREAS ARE NOW IN
PLACE. ANOTHER MAIN SYSTEM WELL UPSTREAM OFFERS UNCERTAINTY WITH
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK DIGGING AND NORTHWEST RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOWS.
MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, A LEAD/WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER THE GULF AND OFF FLORIDA MAY PROLONG A WET PATTERN
INTO LATER THIS WEEK WITH EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW, BUT
SUSPECT THE BULK OF ACTIVITY INTO MIDWEEK. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT
TO A LESSER EXTENT SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GULF COASTAL AREAS, WITH
SOME INCREASING FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH LEADING RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SLATED TO OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO MONITOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY HEAT-UP THROUGH LATER PERIOD RIDGE
BUILDING ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. TO THE EAST.
WELL UPSTREAM, AN UNSETTLING/COOLING EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL WORK SLOWLY INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE SOUTHWEST, WITH GROWING MODERATE SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AMPLE LEAD RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENT THEN OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MAY PORTEND AN EMERGING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT HAS SOME SIGNAL EVIDENT BEYOND
THAT INTO WEEK 2 AS PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). THIS
MAY OFFER BROAD MODERATE AND HIGH RISK POTENTIAL TO MONITOR AS
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEED UP INTO MULTIPLE STREAMS.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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