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FXUS06 KWBC 061936
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 06 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 16 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
ANOMALIES AND THE UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS IS BASED ON 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. ALL ENSEMBLE
MODELS AND THE MANUAL BLEND PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. THE MANUAL BLEND AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICT GREATER POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, COMPARED TO THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS) AT THE START OF PERIOD QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY IN ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND A RIDGE PERSIST
OVER THE MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND
ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED PERSISTENT RIDGE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED BLEND OF FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, REPRESENTING
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO INCONSISTENT FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WEST, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF
CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, UNDER A
PERSISTENT RIDGE, WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
EASTERN CONUS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CONSISTENT
WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
ALL OF HAWAII AND MORE LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA EXCLUDING
THE SOUTH COAST, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
CALIBRATED ECMWF PRECIPITATION. WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS PREDICTED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THIS REGION AROUND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 20 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECASTS, WITH SOME
EVOLUTION OF THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECASTS. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE MANUAL BLEND.
DOWNSTREAM A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF THE CONUS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS, WITH WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE WEST. A BROAD RIDGE AND EXPANSIVE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS, WITH THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTING GREATER AND MORE EXPANSIVE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES THAN THE ECMWF AND GEFS MODELS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ENSEMBLE
MEAN FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, UNDER THE
PREDICTED RIDGE, AND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINLAND, UNDER
WEAKENING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTHERN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD, UNDER A BROAD RIDGE IN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WHERE
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE LESS CONSISTENT. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN
MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING A SMALL
AREA OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THESE REGIONS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
BE FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020413 - 20130420 - 20210330 - 20200322 - 20210322
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070316 - 20110413 - 20040318 - 20020413 - 20210330
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 16 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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