540
FXUS02 KWBC 062000
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
VALID 12Z THU APR 09 2026 - 12Z MON APR 13 2026
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS AS WELL AS THE NBM HAVE NARROWED DOWN THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THIS WEEK. THE NBM QPF AXIS HAS GRADUALLY NUDGED SOUTHWARD OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS, FAVORING MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR INTRUSION
FROM CANADA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS
PREFERENCE. THIS HAS ALSO LED TO MORE DOWNSTREAM COOLING OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS COMING WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
FAIRLY AGREEABLE FOR A LOW TO REACH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
EXPAND IN SIZE SUNDAY TO MONDAY.
THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE NBM QPF AXIS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH A FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TOWARD
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QPF AXIS FROM
TEXAS TO MISSOURI FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY WHICH HAS HELD STEADY IN
PLACE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF NBM RUNS. OTHERWISE, THE LATE-WEEK
RAIN IN EASTERN FLORIDA IS ON TRACK TO ABATE. THE LATE- WEEK-TO-
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION IN CALIFORNIA APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW,
ALTHOUGH THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS SUBJECT TO
FLUCTUATIONS.
THE WPC PROGNOSTIC CHARTS ARE BASED ON A COMPOSITE BLEND FROM THE
LATEST GFS/GEFS, ECMWF/EC MEAN, AND CMC/CMC MEAN, WITH MUCH OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPRISING THE BLEND FOR DAYS 6 & 7. THIS FORECAST
PLAN APPEARS IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
FLOW OVER THE NATION THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO MAIN
STREAMS. AN ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND
DEEPENED SURFACE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST/CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY FRIDAY, SLICING THROUGH LEADING AND COOLED HIGH
PRESSURE. A SWATH OF MODERATE RAINS, NORTHERN PERIPHERY SNOWS, AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE. THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING IN
THE GUIDANCE FOR A HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FOCUS ON
THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWED AND RETURN MOISTURE
POOLING TRAILING FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE A WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
DAY 4/THURSDAY AND DAY 5/FRIDAY MARGINAL RISK AREAS REMAIN IN
PLACE. ANOTHER MAIN SYSTEM WELL UPSTREAM OFFERS UNCERTAINTY WITH
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK DIGGING AND NORTHWEST RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOWS.
MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, A LEAD/WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERING OVER THE GULF COMBINED WITH A BETTER-DEFINED FRONTAL
WAVE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAST FLORIDA MAY
PROLONG A WET PATTERN INTO LATER THIS WEEK WITH EASTERLY LOWER
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA INTO MIDWEEK.
SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT, TO A LESSER EXTENT OVER SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND GULF COASTAL AREAS, WITH SOME INCREASING FOCUS OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS WHEN MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALLOWING A WARMING TREND TO SPREAD NORTH
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY.
WELL UPSTREAM, AN UNSETTLING/COOLING EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL WORK SLOWLY INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE SOUTHWEST, WITH GROWING MODERATE SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. AMPLE LEAD RETURN FLOW DEVELOPMENT THEN OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MAY PORTEND AN EMERGING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT HAS SOME SIGNAL EVIDENT BEYOND
THAT INTO WEEK 2 AS PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). THIS
MAY OFFER BROAD MODERATE AND HIGH RISK POTENTIAL TO MONITOR AS
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEED UP INTO MULTIPLE STREAMS.
KONG/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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