804
FXUS06 KWBC 071902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE APRIL 07 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 17 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
ANOMALIES AND THE UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS IS BASED ON 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS,
WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. ALL ENSEMBLE
MODELS AND THE MANUAL BLEND PREDICT A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, THE ALEUTIANS, AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA. MOST MODELS PREDICT POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MAINLAND
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY ALL MODELS.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS THEN RISE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE PACIFIC COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
PROGRESS EASTWARD IN ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS, BEFORE A RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN CENTRAL CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED PERSISTENT RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. PROBABILITIES
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS ARE MODERATED, DUE TO
A VARIABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN AND WEAK AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE
PERIOD, UNDER A PERSISTENT RIDGE, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF MODEL
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED
80 PERCENT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF
HAWAII, EXCLUDING THE ISLAND OF KAUAI, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION AND ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTH COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. WITH A TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS
LATER IN THE PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS EXCLUDING CLIMATOLOGICALLY ARID AREAS OF CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS. A DRIER START TO THE PERIOD REDUCES
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE NORTHEAST, WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THESE REGIONS AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
VERY LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 21 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECASTS, WITH SOME
EVOLUTION OF THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, WITH THE GEFS
PREDICTING THE RIDGE TO BE CENTERED FURTHER WEST OF THE ECMWF FORECAST. THE
MANUAL BLEND, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL GREATER THAN OTHER MODELS, PLACES THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND
ACROSS MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN ALL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE MANUAL
BLEND. DOWNSTREAM A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO AMPLIFY DURING THE PERIOD
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTS PROGRESSION OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS. A BROAD RIDGE AND EXPANSIVE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS FROM THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTING GREATER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THAN THE CANADIAN AND GEFS MODELS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, UNDER THE
PREDICTED RIDGE, AND FOR THE WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT
WITH AN AUTOMATED BLEND OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER
A BROAD RIDGE IN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN MAINE, CONSISTENT
WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MOST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING SMALL
AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED
TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR REMAINING
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND
WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20130420 - 20210330 - 20200321 - 20030330 - 20040319
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20070317 - 20040318 - 20210330 - 20130420 - 20200321
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 13 - 17 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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