308
FXUS02 KWBC 081842
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT WED APR 8 2026
VALID 12Z SAT APR 11 2026 - 12Z WED APR 15 2026
..OVERVIEW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AMPLIFIED THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT/COOLING UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE WEST AND WARMING RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST. UPPER
TROUGHING WILL WORK OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S., DRIVING A
STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AND HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY-TO-MID NEXT WEEK, WITH AN EXPECTED
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS, UNCERTAINTY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED SURROUNDING
ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA,
WHICH WAS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS WILL BRING
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST MID-NEXT WEEK. A BROAD
BLEND OF AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAS USED AS THE STARTING
POINT FOR WPC'S AFTERNOON FORECAST, WITH INCREASING CONTRIBUTIONS
TO THE BLEND FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS MID-NEXT WEEK TO HELP SMOOTH OUT
MODEL DIFFERENCES. THIS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A CLOSED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL PUSH A SURFACE SYSTEM
INLAND OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ENERGETIC SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL ACT TO DRIVE A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCLUDING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPSLOPE FORCING IN PLACE. HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES.
DOWNSTREAM, MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM THE
GULF WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR
HEAVY RAIN BY THIS WEEKEND. MARGINAL RISK THREAT AREAS ARE NOW IN
PLACE FOR THE DAY 4/SATURDAY AND DAY 5/SUNDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN
THREAT MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AND EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EVENTUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PER SPC. IN THIS
PATTERN, DOWNSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMANATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST,
GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DOLAN/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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