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FXCA20 KWBC 081843
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 PM EDT WED APR 08 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 APRIL 2026 AT 1845 UTC:
MEXICO AND NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA...
ON WEDNESDAY, THE REGION IS SEEING A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AS THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATE EASTWARD,
EXPECT SUBTLE AND PROGRESSIVE AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT
COULD PROVIDE WEAK SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE MID-LEVELS, THIS
ZONAL FLOW IS REFLECTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO, WHILE A RIDGE
IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTH CENTRAL
AMERICA REGION, PROVIDING SOME SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, THE WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH LOW
AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED WITH THIS FLOW. THIS
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS AND FAVOR LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC LIFT, AND A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS AMPLIFIED BY THE WARMING PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. WITH THIS HEAT IN PLACE AND MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE
EAST BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DIURNAL HEATING WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TOTALS, AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TOTALS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
FLORIDA AND THE NORTH BAHAMAS REGION, FAVORING DIVERGENCE ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH BAHAMAS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR LIFT, THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
REMAINS AROUND 40-50MM ON WEDNESDAY, AND DECREASES OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS AS THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO ENTER THE
REGION. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT A SHEAR LINE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INTERACT WITH THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MEANDERS OVER SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS AND WEST CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AS THESE SYSTEMS PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL IMPEDE FROM SEEING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DAILY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. EXPECT LOCALLY
MODERATE TOTALS IN AREAS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED.
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTH CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE NORTHWEST REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA IS PRONE TO MUCH CONVECTION
ON WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS THERE IS THE
PROPAGATION OF VARIOUS TROUGHS IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT ARE FAVORING
DEEP CONVECTION. ON WEDNESDAY, A DISTURBANCE IS EXITING COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR AND ENTERING SOUTH OF PANAMA, WHERE IT IS ACTIVATING
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN REGIONS OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR. A SECONDARY PERTURBATION IS PROPAGATING OVER THE CENTRAL
AMAZON BASIN AND ENCOUNTERING THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH TOWARDS THE
NORTH, OVER THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN, BY THE EVENING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL COLOMBIA, INTO
WESTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND INTO NORTHERN PERU ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, THESE TROUGHS CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WEST, INTERACTING
WITH THE ANDES MOUNTAINS OVER COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR, WHERE ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL
REGIONS OF AFOREMENTIONED COUNTRIES. IN ADDITION, THE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF PANAMA AND WEST OF COLOMBIA SLOWS DOWN AND MEANDERS
OVER THE REGION, FAVORING ENHANCED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO WEST
COLOMBIA, HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. TO THE
EAST, DRY AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. ON FRIDAY, THE PROPAGATING TROUGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE
TOGETHER, INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND WEST COLOMBIA, FAVORING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE
INTO WEST COLOMBIA, BUT AS THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE
NORTHERN REGIONS OF PANAMA AND EAST COSTA RICA WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN COASTS, FAVORING
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. EASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN CAN STILL
SEE THE REMNANTS OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND SEE A CHANCE OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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