385
FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 08 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 18 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS AND THE MANUAL BLEND PREDICT A RIDGE
AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, THE ALEUTIANS,
AND MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. TOOLS HAVE SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE
TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS)
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. IN HAWAII, TOOLS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA UNDER THE PREDICTED PERSISTENT RIDGE. OVER THE CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY, CONSISTENT WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS ARE MODERATED, DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, UNDER A PERSISTENT RIDGE.
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70 PERCENT OVER LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
REGIONS OF THE MAINLAND, AND ALASKA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA. WITH
A TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD,
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTO PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM
ARIZONA, TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE NORTHEAST, WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE FLOW
INTO THESE REGIONS AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RELATED TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE REGION.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 22 2026
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND
YESTERDAY. A STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER REMAINS FORECAST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES FAVORED INTO SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST BUT THE FEATURE HAS
DEEPENED RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES, POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED. MOST TOOLS FORECAST THE STRONGEST
ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IN HAWAII, TOOLS ARE
GENERALLY MIXED, WITH WEAK ANOMALIES FORECAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH AN AUTOMATED BLEND OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER
A BROAD RIDGE IN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND
NORTHERN MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FAVORS COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST COAST, HOWEVER, THE WEAK TROUGH AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY LEND TOWARDS WARMER CONDITIONS. A GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI,
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MOST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE AND SOMEWHAT WITH THE CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT
WITH MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW INTO THIS
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS, THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND THE
GREAT LAKES, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND A STRONG SIGNAL
IN THE ANALOG GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD,
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RELATED TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE REGION.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20130420 - 20190330 - 20030331 - 20200320 - 20210330
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20130420 - 20040318 - 20210330 - 20200320 - 20030331
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 18 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page