038
FXUS02 KWBC 090739
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VALID 12Z SUN APR 12 2026 - 12Z THU APR 16 2026
..OVERVIEW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
POTENT/COOLING UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST AND WARMING
RIDGING SPREADS UP OVER THE EAST. UPPER TROUGHING WILL WORK OVER
THE WEST AND CENTRAL U.S./MIDWEST AND DRIVE A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY SNOW
POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED TERRAIN FROM THE SIERRA NEVADA TO THE ROCKIES
AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE NORTHERN UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AN EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. FAVOR A BROAD
MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN/MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE BLEND WITH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EMPHASIS ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET MODELS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING EMPHASIS MORE TOWARD A GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS BASED SOLUTION INTO MID-LATER NEXT WEEK. THE BLENDING
PROCESS IS DESIGNED TO HELP MITIGATE LINGERING SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM
TIMING AND STRENGTH VARIANCES AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL
PREDICTABILITY. THIS PLAN MAINTAINS GOOD PRODUCT CONTINUITY WITH
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST SUITE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A LEAD CLOSED PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL PUSH A SURFACE SYSTEM
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER ENERGETIC SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE LEAD
SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. SUNDAY AND
ENHANCE WINDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH CYCLO/FRONTO GENESIS. THE
SECOND SYSTEM WILL ACT TO DRIVE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
INCLUDING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND STRONG UPSLOPE FORCING IN PLACE.
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES.
DOWNSTREAM, MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM THE
GULF WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR
HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A MARGINAL RISK THREAT
AREAS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY 4/SUNDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND EVENTUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE STRENGTHENING
SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS PER SPC.
CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS HERE ARE LIKELY TO REFIRE THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK
HERE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROUGH/LOW ENERGY WORKING OUT FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MODERATE SYSTEM GENESIS.
MEANWHILE IN THIS PATTERN, DOWNSTREAM HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMANATE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO ALLOW A WARMING TREND TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARD
THE UPPER MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page