117
FXUS02 KWBC 091900
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VALID 12Z SUN APR 12 2026 - 12Z THU APR 16 2026
..OVERVIEW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
AND RIDGING OVER THE EAST NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND HIGH WIND THREATS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES,
AND HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST.
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH AN EXPECTED AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF AN ENERGETIC UPPER
LOW/TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW/TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN
QUICKLY LIFE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., WHICH WILL AFFECT SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER
END OF GUIDANCE, THOUGH NOT UNREASONABLY SLOW, BUT A FASTER
SOLUTION LOOKS MOST LIKELY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS, CMC, EC-
AIFS, AND AI-GFS.
A NEAR EVEN BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE PROVIDED
A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE WPC FORECAST, AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM
THE CMCE, GEFS, AND ECENS WERE ADDED IN INCREASING AMOUNTS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TO HELP SMOOTH OUT MODEL DIFFERENCES. THIS
FORECAST MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST
AND WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A CLOSED PACIFIC UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE SYSTEM
INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER ENERGETIC SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
LEADING SYSTEM WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
ON SUNDAY AND ENHANCE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, INCLUDING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, THROUGH MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
WITH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND STRONG UPSLOPE FORCING IN PLACE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EMERGE IN THE
PLAINS AND BRING HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
DOWNSTREAM, MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND INSTABILITY FROM THE
GULF WILL PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, AND A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS REPEATED ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST, AS PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL FAVOR COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WEST AND WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE IN
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 15-25 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AND TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY.
DOLAN/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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