620
FXUS06 KWBC 091902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU APRIL 09 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 19 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS AND THE MANUAL BLEND PREDICT A RIDGE
AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, THE ALEUTIANS,
AND MAINLAND ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). TOOLS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS TROUGHING FEATURE TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS CONUS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL RIDGING. IN HAWAII, TOOLS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHTS IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS UNDER THE PREDICTED
PERSISTENT RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALASKA TODAY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT OVER THE
REGION RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ENSEMBLE MODEL
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED
80 PERCENT OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS BENEATH STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGING. RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS ARE
MODERATED, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL INTRUSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EVEN FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IS FAVORED
FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE MAINLAND, CLOSER TO THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY. THIS BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS INLAND
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY LEADING TO A DRIER FORECAST ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE WEST
COAST. NEAR TO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN
THE REGION. IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI, AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, RETURN FLOW AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH BRINGS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. CONVERSELY, FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED DISPLACED
FROM THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED SQUARELY BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE, LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RELATED TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE REGION.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 23 2026
THE WEEK-2 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND
YESTERDAY. A STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER REMAINS FORECAST SOUTH OF ALASKA
WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES FAVORED INTO SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA. JUST INLAND OF
THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS A WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST BUT THE MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED SOMEWHAT RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE, THE GEFS HAS TRENDED
STRONGER WHILE THE ECENS IS A BIT WEAKER WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES CONFINED TO
CANADA. ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES, EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE MOST LIKELY, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FAVORED. MOST TOOLS FORECAST THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC. IN
HAWAII, TOOLS ARE GENERALLY MIXED, WITH WEAK ANOMALIES FORECAST.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE CALIBRATED FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER
A BROAD RIDGE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
WEST COAST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND NORTHERN MAINE,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS COOL
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST COAST, HOWEVER, THE WEAK TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
CONDITIONS LEND TOWARDS WARMER CONDITIONS. A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MOST
OF MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL
FORECAST GUIDANCE AND WITH THE CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM
THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG A PREDICTED TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS, AND THE GREAT LAKES, CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION AND A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE ANALOG GUIDANCE BASED ON
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW CLIMATOLOGIES AND
BEING DISPLACED FROM THE MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION REDUCE CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED
FOR HAWAII IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST GUIDANCE, OFFSET BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RELATED TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE REGION.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030331 - 20190330 - 20130421 - 20200320 - 20150402
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20130420 - 20030331 - 20210330 - 20200319 - 20040319
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 15 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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