320
FXUS02 KWBC 100706
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
306 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 12Z MON APR 13 2026 - 12Z FRI APR 17 2026
***MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE WEST. MULTIPLE
IMPULSES WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PROVIDE FORCING
FOR EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FEATURES GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SO A GENERAL DETERMINISTIC
MODEL BLEND WORKS WELL AS A STARTING POINT. RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A QUICKER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NON-NCEP GUIDANCE. THERE ARE ALSO NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND THE AIFS GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE AIFS
PORTRAYING A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO COMPARED TO THE EXTREME VALUES
NOTED IN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF. DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. BECOME SIGNIFICANT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, SO AN ENSEMBLE MEAN
APPROACH IS INCREASINGLY USED FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES. THE NBM
APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR MOST AREAS OF THE
COUNTRY FOR TEMPERATURES, AND QPF WAS RAISED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING IS POSSIBLE AND
WINDS RAISED SOME ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THAT WILL
DELIVER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCLUDING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW, THROUGH MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SAME FRONT
WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND BRING HEAVY SNOW
AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST LATER INTO TUESDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST STATES,
GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE CHANNELED NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MIDWEST
BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES, AND THE LIMITED EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS THAT HAVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. MARGINAL RISK AREAS WILL BE VALID ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY ON TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY BEYOND THIS TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES NEXT WEEK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MANY AREAS, AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE REACHES IT PEAK. THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST
COOLING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND
REMAINING HOT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS. OUT WEST,
READINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IN PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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