437
FXCA20 KWBC 101755
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 10 APRIL 2026 AT 1800 UTC:
MEXICO AND NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE REGION WILL SEE ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. TO THE WEST, A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ENTERING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM THE WEST UNITED STATES, INTERACTING WITH THE ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE REGION AND BRING DIVERGENCE OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MEXICO
BY FRIDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, THE ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THE PRESSURES IN THE REGION, FAVORING
TROUGHING IN THE LOWER LEVELS, ALONG TEXAS AND THE MEXICAN
ALTIPLANO, AS WELL AS ACTIVATING LOW LEVEL JETS (LLJ) ALONG THE
EASTERN COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO, INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY AS THAT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES BY THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LINE IN
THE MEXICAN ALTIPLANO, ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT
SUPPORT WILL FAVOR THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE REGION.
THE DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, THE
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY,
BUT WILL SHIFT WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL FAVOR A RIDGING FORMATION OVER THE REGION
CONTINUING TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ENTERING THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH ITS
BASE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY MORNING. OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, EXPECT ZONAL FLOW TO
REMAIN IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. DUE TO THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MEXICO, RIDGING WILL BE FAVORED OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING ALONG THE WIDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, INCREASING THE DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY EVENING. SINCE FRIDAY, A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PRESENT FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO TURKS AND CAICOS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. ON SATURDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EASTWARD, FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PREFRONTAL TROUGHS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
REGION, FAVORING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER HISPANIOLA,
PUERTO RICO, AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW AND REMAINS A POSITIVE TILT,
WITH ITS BASE IN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY IN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC, WHILE DEVELOPING A SHEAR LINE OVER TURKS AND CAICOS AND
EAST CUBA BY THE EVENING HOURS OF SUNDAY. THESE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER TURKS AND
CAICOS, EAST CUBA, AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN IN HISPANIOLA, EXPECT HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, PRIMARILY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HAITI,
TURKS AND CAICOS, THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS, AND EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT
MODERATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ON SUNDAY.
NORTH SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTH CENTRAL AMERICA...
ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND, THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WILL MEANDER
NORTH AND WESTWARD, CLOSER TO THE AMAZON BASIN AND INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WILL FAVOR DIFFLUENT FLOWS OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICAN REGIONS, AND
INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS,
SEVERAL PROPAGATING TROUGHS ARE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE IN
THE AMAZON BASIN AND MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE WEST, BRINGING WITH
THEM ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE FROM THE OUTFLOW OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH. OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, THE CARIBBEAN LLJ IS ACTIVE AND ADVECTING MOISTURE
INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, WHICH WILL SEE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGE IN THE COUNTRIES. EXPECT COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA, PARTICULARLY FROM THE LIMON REGION IN COSTA RICA
THROUGH THE COLON REGION IN PANAMA TO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DAILY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. ANOTHER REGION OF CONCERN IS WESTERN COLOMBIA AS
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
PROPAGATING TROUGHS FAVORING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE REGION.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. IN THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN, THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF THE ANDES IN
COLOMBIA, ECUADOR, NORTH PERU AS WELL AS IN THE WESTERN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL, FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT DAILY TOTALS TO INCREASE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AMAZONAS-BRASIL.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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