442
FXUS06 KWBC 101906
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 10 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 20 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA. A PAIR OF TROUGHS EXTEND FROM THIS ELONGATED LOW WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAKER,
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, VERY STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, DAILY MODEL OUTPUT DOES INDICATE
THAT THE EAST COAST RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME
BUT REMAIN STRONG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY NEAR
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
FLOW.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80
PERCENT ACROSS A VAST AREA COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AS WELL AS THE TENNESSEE, OHIO, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, WHERE ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST PERSISTENT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EASTWARD TO
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A
TROUGH FORECAST OVER WESTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD PATTERN IS
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE
(GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR
NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, NEAR THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, DUE TO A FAVORABLE
SET-UP FOR ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO
GOOD STATISTICAL SUPPORT FROM NATURAL ANALOGS TO THE PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL
PATTERN. CONVERSELY, RIDING FARTHER TO THE EAST SUPPORTS A DRIER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHWARD TO COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM CALIFORNIA TO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AS TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGING FORECAST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND, WHERE THESE
TELECONNECTIONS YIELDED THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, AS DAILY MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES
INCREASED MOISTURE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 24 2026
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FEATURES A PERSISTENCE OF MOST OF THE MAIN FEATURES
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY DISCUSSION. STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA DURING
MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND. PERSISTENT TROUGHS ARE FORECAST SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUING NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STRONG RIDING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ENVELOPING
THE ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONUS DUE TO PERSISTENT AND STRONG RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE PERSISTENT RIDGING LIKELY WILL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION
EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE. CONVERSELY, COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MOST OF EASTERN
AND NORTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND. STRONG RIDGING FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST SUPPORTS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
A LONG DURATION ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS,
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
SUPPORTS ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (ABOVE 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHERE TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUPPORT THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, DUE TO THIS PREDICTED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DUE TO LARGE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. A LARGE AREA OF
MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
MOST OF THE WEST DUE TO THIS CONFLICTING GUIDANCE. MODESTLY ENHANCED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS NEAR AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A
WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH PREDICTED STRONG RIDGING TO ITS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. A WEAK
TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH ANALOGS FROM THE PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL
PATTERN. AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED MEAN POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED
ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATED CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, OFFSET
BY LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
2026-04-10.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030331 - 20190330 - 20130421 - 20200323 - 20150402
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20130420 - 20030331 - 20200320 - 20210330 - 20190330
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 20 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 24 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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