284
FXUS02 KWBC 101953
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 12Z MON APR 13 2026 - 12Z FRI APR 17 2026
***MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE WEST. MULTIPLE
IMPULSES WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PROVIDE FORCING
FOR EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST 00/06Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS
FAIRLY AGREEABLE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD, WITH MEAN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND MEAN UPPER-TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL UPPER-LEVEL WAVES WITHIN
THE MEAN FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD SHOW
INCREASING FORECAST DIVERGENCE. THE FIRST SUCH UPPER-WAVE EXPECTED
TO EJECT OUT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF THE UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN
THE GFS/GEFS MEAN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE AI
GUIDANCE (AIGFS AND ECMWF AIFS) SHOWS A FASTER COLD FRONT
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY VICINITY WHICH SHIFTS
PRECIPITATION EAST/SOUTH FASTER SIMILAR TO THE GFS/GEFS MEAN. THE
NBM QPF APPEARED REASONABLE ENOUGH FOR NOW, FAVORING MORE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF/CMC AND THEIR CENTER'S MEAN GUIDANCE, BUT LIMITING AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE ECMWF/CMC AND THESE MEANS ALSO FAVOR A
STRONGER RIDGE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS PARTICULARLY THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK. THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DIVERGES FURTHER BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO ANOTHER UPPER-WAVE IN THE MEAN FLOW REACHING THE CENTRAL
U.S., WITH VARIOUS FASTER/SLOWER POSITIONS BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS/CMC AS WELL AS THE AI GUIDANCE, AND THE MEANS TENDING TO
FAVOR THEIR RESPECTIVE CENTER'S DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THIS LEAVES
QPF COVERAGE/AMOUNTS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN BY FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE
MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER-RIDGE/TROUGH REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE NBM'S DEPICTION OF BROAD/LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW. THE UPDATED WPC FORECAST USED A COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/ECMWF AIFS/CMC AND 06Z GFS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD
WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL CLUSTERED. A
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WAS ADDED AND INCREASED
THROUGH THE MID- TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AND THE GFS REMOVED
GIVEN THE NOTED FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE INITIAL UPPER-WAVE IN THE
GFS AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
LATE WEEK.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BRING A
RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THAT WILL
DELIVER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCLUDING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW, THROUGH MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SAME FRONT
WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND BRING HEAVY SNOW AND
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST LATER
INTO TUESDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE NEXT UPPER
LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION MAY BE MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN PARTICULAR, WITH AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTHERN
CASCADES.
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST STATES,
GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE CHANNELED NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MIDWEST
BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES, AND THE LIMITED EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS THAT HAVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. MARGINAL RISK AREAS WILL BE VALID ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY, AND THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
AT LEAST SCATTERED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK PLAUSIBLE BEYOND
THIS TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
THE FAVORABLE SPRING PATTERN HOLDS STEADY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES NEXT WEEK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY AREAS, AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS THE EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE REACHES IT PEAK. NUMEROUS RECORD-
TYING/BREAKING DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF THE HEAT INCREASES BY LATER NEXT
WEEK PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHILE THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN HOT. OUT
WEST, READINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
PUTNAM/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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