782
FXUS02 KWBC 110738
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VALID 12Z TUE APR 14 2026 - 12Z SAT APR 18 2026
***MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND A GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE WEST. MULTIPLE
IMPULSES WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PROVIDE FORCING
FOR EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHILE
SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FEATURES GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, SO A GENERAL
DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND WORKS WELL AS A STARTING POINT. RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A QUICKER COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
WHEN COMPARED TO THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE, BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT REMAINS THE CASE
THAT THE ECMWF AND ECENS ARE BOTH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE
AIFS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., BUT NOT TO THE SAME DEGREE AS NOTED
YESTERDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN
CHANGE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED, AND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MAKES PROGRESS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S.
AFTER AN EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE, BUT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST BY
THIS TIME TO MERIT AN INCREASE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ABOUT 50-60
PERCENT BY THAT TIME. THE NBM APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING
POINT FOR MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY FOR TEMPERATURES, AND QPF WAS
RAISED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE, AND WINDS RAISED SOME ACROSS COLORADO AND
NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST
STATES, GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CHANNELED NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE
MIDWEST BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER
THE ROCKIES, AND THE LIMITED EASTWARD PROGRESSION EACH DAY WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS THAT HAVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. MARGINAL RISK AREAS WILL BE VALID
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHERE A FEW MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY BEYOND THIS TIME
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST.
OUT WEST, AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A RENEWED ROUND OF COASTAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY 1-2+
FEET OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. THIS MOISTURE THEN MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF UTAH AND COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES NEXT WEEK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR MANY AREAS, AND EVEN SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE REACHES IT PEAK. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGHS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE A MODEST COOLING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC, AND REMAINING HOT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
CAROLINAS. OUT WEST, READINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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