733
FXUS06 KWBC 111919
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT APRIL 11 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 21 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA. A PAIR OF TROUGHS EXTEND FROM THIS ELONGATED LOW WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE POSITION
OF THIS SECOND TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S
SOLUTIONS. STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. AS SUCH,
MODELS NOW GENERALLY DEPICT TWO DISTINCT POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH ONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND A SECOND LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY
NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH LOW AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHERE ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST PERSISTENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A COLD PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND
NORTHERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT
CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, NEAR THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
FAVORS A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER HALF OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, DUE TO A FAVORABLE
SET-UP FOR ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, DUE TO GOOD STATISTICAL
SUPPORT FROM NATURAL ANALOGS TO THE PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
CONVERSELY, RIDGING FARTHER TO THE EAST SUPPORTS A DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE FAR WEST, ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AS TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND, WHERE THESE TELECONNECTIONS
YIELDED THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR HAWAII, AS DAILY MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES INCREASED MOISTURE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN, OFFSET BY LARGE UNCERTAINTIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 25 2026
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FEATURES A SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE
MEAN. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE FEATURES NEAR THE WEST COAST WITHIN THIS BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW. A
SECOND TROUGH, INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES, IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO REGENERATE NORTHWARD AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. NEAR NORMAL
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONUS DUE TO PERSISTENT AND STRONG RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, WHERE RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CONVERSELY, COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED OVER MOST OF ALASKA, DUE TO
TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. STRONG RIDGING FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST SUPPORTS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE UPPER HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (ABOVE 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHERE TELECONNECTIONS
FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUPPORT THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
DUE TO THIS PREDICTED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MODESTLY
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CONFIDENCE
IS UNUSUALLY LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DUE TO LARGE
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. A WEAK TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO
PREDICTED TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO STARK DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN
WETTER DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND DRIER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS, AND WAS LARGELY
INFORMED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA,
SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED MEAN POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
CENTER TO ITS SOUTH. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT
WITH CONSOLIDATED CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
UNUSUALLY POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030331 - 20200323 - 20190330 - 20130421 - 20150403
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030331 - 20200321 - 20130420 - 20190329 - 20210401
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 17 - 21 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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