828
FXUS02 KWBC 120754
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VALID 12Z WED APR 15 2026 - 12Z SUN APR 19 2026
***MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEK***
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES, AND ANOTHER
TROUGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WEST. MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL EJECT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PROVIDE FORCING FOR EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER-MID 90S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE SNOW WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT.
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FEATURES GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, SO A GENERAL
DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND WORKS WELL AS A STARTING POINT. IT
REMAINS THE CASE THAT THE ECMWF AND ECENS ARE STILL WARMER THAN
THE AIFS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
INDICATING HIGHS WELL INTO RECORD TERRITORY. THE GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE SUPPRESSED, AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT MAKES
PROGRESS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. AFTER THE EARLY SEASON HEAT
WAVE, BUT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST BY THIS TIME TO MERIT AN
INCREASE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. THE NBM APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR
MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY FOR TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH VALUES WERE
RAISED 1-2 DEGREES FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
WHERE THERE IS STRONGER SUPPORT FOR HIGHS ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE. THE
QPF WAS RAISED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST WHERE
CONVECTIVE TRAINING IS POSSIBLE, AND WINDS RAISED SOME ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST STATES,
GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CHANNELED NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE
MIDWEST BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE
EJECTING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. A MARGINAL RISK AREA WILL BE
VALID FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY/DAY 4
WHERE A FEW MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY/DAY 5, SO NO
RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR THAT DAY, BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT.
OUT WEST, AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A RENEWED ROUND OF COASTAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY 1-2+
FEET OF SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. THIS MOISTURE THEN MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF UTAH AND COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MANY AREAS, AND EVEN SOME LOWER-MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE REACHES IT PEAK. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGHS
ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC, AND REMAINING HOT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
CAROLINAS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN COMES BY LATE NEXT SUNDAY
AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE EAST COAST
STATES. OUT WEST, READINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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