806
FXUS02 KWBC 121837
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
VALID 12Z WED APR 15 2026 - 12Z SUN APR 19 2026
...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS NEXT WEEK...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE EAST COAST STATES, AND ANOTHER
TROUGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WEST. MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL EJECT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PROVIDE FORCING FOR EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER-MID 90S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE SNOW IS LIKELY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT.
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION DURING THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD, BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD FEATURES A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AND A GENERAL
DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND WORKED AS A GOOD STARTING POINT. BY
FRIDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE VARIABILITY ON THE TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF
THIS. WHILE NOT SUBSTANTIAL AT SYNOPTIC SCALE, THESE DIFFERENCES DO
HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE SMALLER SCALE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS,
INCLUDING QPF AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. INCREASED THE WEIGHTING OF
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO HALF THE BLEND BY DAY 7/SUNDAY TO HELP
MITIGATE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.
THE 13Z NBM WAS AGAIN A VERY GOOD STARTING POINT FOR THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER GRID FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY NOTABLE EDITS
NEEDED WAS TO INCREASE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO
MID-ATLANTIC WHERE THERE IS STRONGER SUPPORT FOR HIGHS ABOVE NBM
GUIDANCE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST STATES,
GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THE MOISTURE
WILL BE CHANNELED NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE MIDWEST
BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. A MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 WHERE A FEW
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY/DAY 5, SO NO RISK AREAS ARE
CURRENTLY DEPICTED FOR THAT DAY, BUT A RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE GOING INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT.
OUT WEST, AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A RENEWED ROUND OF COASTAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH POTENTIALLY 1-2+ FEET OF
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES. THIS MOISTURE THEN MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN IDAHO TO NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.
LIGHTER SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH
AND COLORADO. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MAKING WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S., WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MANY AREAS, AND EVEN SOME LOWER-MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE
EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE REACHES IT PEAK. THIS EQUATES TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCAL MAJOR HEATRISK, WITH NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGHS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC,
BUT REMAINING HOT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE CAROLINAS. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN COMES BY LATE NEXT SUNDAY AS THE STRONG COLD
FRONT FROM THE PLAINS APPROACHES THE EAST COAST STATES. OUT WEST,
READINGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IN PLACE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
SANTORELLI/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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