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FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN APRIL 12 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 22 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA. A PAIR OF TROUGHS EXTEND FROM THIS ELONGATED LOW WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE POSITION
OF THIS SECOND TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S
SOLUTIONS. STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. AS SUCH,
MODELS NOW GENERALLY DEPICT TWO DISTINCT POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGING AFFECTING THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S (CONUS), WITH ONE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND A SECOND LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ACROSS THE WEST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST.
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
EXPANSIVE RIDGING SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70
PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WHERE ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOST PERSISTENT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROUGH FORECAST
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A COLD PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE STATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, NEAR THE
PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS A TILT
TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL
SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER HALF OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, DUE TO A FAVORABLE
SET-UP FOR ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER (GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, DUE TO GOOD STATISTICAL
SUPPORT FROM NATURAL ANALOGS TO THE PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL PATTERN.
CONVERSELY, RIDGING FARTHER TO THE EAST SUPPORTS A DRIER THAN NORMAL PATTERN
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST. AN ACTIVE PATTERN
IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AS TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE ANOMALOUS
RIDGING FORECAST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND, WHERE THESE
TELECONNECTIONS YIELDED THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, AS DAILY MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES
INCREASED MOISTURE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN, OFFSET BY LARGE UNCERTAINTIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 20 - 26 2026
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FEATURES A SLOW PROGRESSION OF STRONG ANOMALOUS RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE
MEAN. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVE FEATURES NEAR THE WEST COAST WITHIN THIS BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW. A
SECOND TROUGH, INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES, IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ROTATE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING ANOMALOUS RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO REGENERATE NORTHWARD AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. NEAR NORMAL
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED
LOW AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL FLOW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONUS DUE TO PERSISTENT AND STRONG RIDGING FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, WHERE RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CONVERSELY, NEAR NORMAL WEATHER IS FAVORED ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS
FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, SUPPORTED BY TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE STRONG
RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED OVER MOST OF ALASKA, DUE TO TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
MAINLAND AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. STRONG RIDGING
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII, DUE PRIMARILY TO
OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE UPPER HALF OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS ENHANCED RETURN FLOW MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER (ABOVE 40 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SUPPORT THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND INTO FLORIDA, DUE TO THIS
PREDICTED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. MODESTLY ENHANCED CHANCES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
NEAR AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DUE TO LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. A WEAK TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED
TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO STARK DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN WETTER
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND DRIER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS, AND WAS LARGELY INFORMED BY
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE UPSTREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AN
ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAVORED FOR MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY
TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE PREDICTED MEAN POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CENTER TO ITS
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATED
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
UNUSUALLY POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200323 - 20030331 - 20210331 - 20190329 - 20150403
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030331 - 20200322 - 20190329 - 20130420 - 20210401
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 22 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 20 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE N N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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