925
FOUS30 KWBC 131555
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1155 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
DAY 1
VALID 12Z MON APR 13 2026 - 12Z TUE APR 14 2026
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWEST L.P. OF MICHIGAN...
16Z UPDATE...
12Z CAMS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT
WITH POTENTIAL TRAINING CELLS CAPABLE OF 1.75"+/HR RATES AND
LOCALIZED 2-3" TOTALS. THERE REMAINS CONTINUED LATITUDINAL VARIANCE
IN THE OVERALL SOLUTION SUITE WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT
IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EXPANDING RIGHT
ENTRANCE JET OUTFLOW DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET; THAT INITIAL WAA ELEVATED CELLS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
A FAVORABLE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATED LINE GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
MEAN STEERING FLOW TO ALLOW FOR TRAINING CELLS. HOWEVER, THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LLJ INFLOW AND SOUTHWARD PROXIMITY TO MORE
UNSTABLE/MOIST AIR WILL ALLOW FOR INITIALLY SEVERE PROBABLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN S MN TO EXPAND, GROW UP-SCALE TO BROADER
CLUSTERS AND REMAIN CAPABLE TO INTERSECT WITH RAINFALL OF THOSE
INITIAL WAA CELLS. HOWEVER, STRONGER INFLOW AND ROTATION OF
UPDRAFTS COULD ALLOW FOR INCREASED SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION AS
WELL,THIS MAY REDUCE SOME OF THAT OVERLAP MAINTAINING SITUATIONAL
UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH GIVEN THE HIGHLY SATURATED GROUND CONDITION AND
COORDINATION WITH LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES, HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO NORTHEAST
WI.
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE L.P. OF MICHIGAN, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ROLL THROUGH THE AREAS SATURATED BY HEAVY RAINFALL
YESTERDAY, OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD BE REDUCING ALONG WITH
INCREASING FORWARD SPEEDS TO LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER, (NEAR)
RECORD WET EARLY SPRING, INCLUDING SPOTS OF 2-4" YESTERDAY, GROUNDS
ARE NEAR OR FULLY SATURATED THAT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE CONVERTED TO
RUNOFF AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH, THE SLIGHT RISK
EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TO ENCOMPASS THOSE AREAS MOST
AFFECTED.
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD CHICAGOLAND AND ACROSS N IND, THE 12Z HRRR IS
BULLISH FOR CONVECTION BREAKING THE CAP ACROSS N IL LATER THIS
EVENING WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES EXPANDING THROUGH
INTERACTION WITH THE LLJ ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
2-3" RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING. WHILE RECENTLY DRY OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS/WEEK, THE AREA ALSO REMAINS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN UPPER SOIL
SATURATION VALUES, AOA 60%, COMBINED WITH LARGER URBAN CENTERS
PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING INCLUDING: CHICAGO, GARY, SOUTH
BEND/ELKHART AND TOLEDO, HAVE EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
GALLINA
~~~PRIOR DISCUSSION~~~
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA TO LOWER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS
A MODEST DECREASE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FOR >1" TOTALS,
THERE STILL 20 TO 40% ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND WESTERN
MICHIGAN AS A FORMIDABLE LLJ AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITHIN A
PROGRESSING WARM FRONT COULD VERY WELL MAXIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
ONGOING MINOR FLOODING AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD SPEED UP
SNOW MELT.
CAMPBELL/KLEEBAUER
DAY 2
VALID 12Z WED APR 15 2026 - 12Z THU APR 16 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...
A DEVELOPING UPPER JET COUPLING WILL LIKELY AID IN REGIONAL ASCENT
WITH FAIRLY GENEROUS INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM THE CORN BELT
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. MULTIPLE AREAS OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE
OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CELLS
PRODUCING UP TO 1.5 INCHES/HR RAINFALL RATES FROM IOWA TO WESTERN
NEW YORK AND SPC HAS IDENTIFIED THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY AS HAVING
AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAT INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS, VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOS.
MEANWHILE CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO DEVELOP AND THE
LIMITED EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS THAT HAVE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A
MARGINAL RISK AREA SPAN FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY NORTHEASTWARD
TO THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH
OF THE SAME AREA AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAMPBELL/KLEEBAUER
DAY 3
VALID 12Z WED APR 15 2026 - 12Z THU APR 16 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TEXAS TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...
THE OVERALL SETUP WILL BE VERY SIMILAR FOR THIS PERIOD JUST
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST. SPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL AND A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WHILE WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION. AREAL AVERAGES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED 1.75 INCHES. GUIDANCE STILL
HAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF R SPREAD ON WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR BUT CONSENSUS IS HINTING SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS WITH A SECONDARY FOCUS FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO
NORTHWEST OHIO.
CAMPBELL
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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