603
FXUS06 KWBC 131911
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 13 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 23 2026
MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER NORTH AMERICA FROM
THE GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH DIFFERENCES MORE SO IN TERMS
OF INTENSITY OF VARIOUS FEATURES, RATHER THAN IN THEIR POSITION. TODAY'S MANUAL
BLEND FEATURES TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA,
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, MODERATE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR WEST, BROAD RIDING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS) AND TROUGHING OVER THE HUDSON BAY.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48 FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST (>60%) OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., UNDER THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE. CONVERSELY, TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST
AND ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FAVORS NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THESE REGIONS DUE TO LIKELY INCREASED CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. FOR ALASKA, STRONG NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE NORTH SLOPE FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, WITH ODDS INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, EXCEEDING
70% FOR THE NORTHERN MAINLAND. HAWAII IS STRONGLY FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARMER-THAN-NORMAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND WEAKENING RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FAVOR A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS (>50%), WHERE INCREASED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A VERY ROBUST MJO OVER
THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE IS FAVORED TO INTERACT WITH THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. ODDS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED (>40%) OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UP TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE WEST COAST TROUGH, AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE LINGERING MID-LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AT BAY. EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FAVORS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, WHERE ODDS EXCEED 50%. CHANCES
DECREASE NORTHWARD, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE.
HAWAII ALSO TILTS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, SUPPORTED BY THE
HAWAII-CON TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5.
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN, ANALOGS, AND TELECONNECTIONS, OFFSET
BY CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 27 2026
THE WEEK-2 SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS INDICATED BY ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IS GENERALLY A
PERSISTENCE OF THE PATTERN SEEN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE
CHANGE BEING A NOTICEABLE REDUCTION IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGES OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. GIVEN THIS, THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK PATTERNS ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER PERIOD.
MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT AT LOWER PROBABILITIES,REACHING THEIR MAXIMUM (>50%) OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST, LIKELY TIED TO
WEAKENING RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS WEAKENING ALSO FAVORS A REDUCTION OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES TO THE NORTH AND WEST, WHILE PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN TIER AND GREAT BASIN REMAIN WEAKLY FAVORED FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ALASKA REMAINS FAVORED FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
INCREASING ODDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, PEAKING AT 60% OVER THE NORTH SLOPE.
HAWAII IS STILL FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CONTINUED BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WEST AND POTENTIAL MJO INTERACTIONS FAVOR A
CONTINUED WET PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER 48. ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CONUS
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA, AND PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS TROUGHING WEAKENS.
ENHANCED CHANCES (>50%) OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AS RIDGING EASES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. ALASKA CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH AT LEAST 50% CHANCES INDICATED FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE MAINLAND. HAWAII ALSO TILTS TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, SUPPORTED BY THE HAWAII-CON TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5.
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN, ANALOGS, AND TELECONNECTIONS, OFFSET
BY CONFLICTING SIGNALS FROM VARIOUS TOOLS.
FORECASTER:
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200324 - 20210331 - 20030401 - 20250401 - 20080417
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030331 - 20200323 - 20210401 - 20210327 - 20130420
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 19 - 23 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN A N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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