357
FXUS02 KWBC 141726
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
126 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
VALID 12Z FRI APR 17 2026 - 12Z TUE APR 21 2026
...HOT ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MORE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL DAILY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MANY PLACES FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. A LEAD SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NORTHEAST WILL PUT A
DENT IN THIS RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH/COLD FRONT
BY SUNDAY THAT WILL BRING THE EARLY SEASON HEATWAVE TO AN END. THIS
SAME STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL APRIL CONDITIONS
AFTER A WEEK OF JUNE AND JULY TYPE WEATHER. A NEW STORM SYSTEM
FROM THE PACIFIC IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST REGION BY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RENEWED PROSPECTS FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD, WITH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICTING A SIMILAR LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS
CONUS. THERE IS SOME SMALLER SCALE DIFFERENCES WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST, AS THE GFS SEEMS TO REFLECT A RIDGE
BUILDING INSTEAD. IN ADDITION, THE UKMET SEEMED TO BE NOTICEABLY
SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN U.S. BY
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE,
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF EAST PACIFIC. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE
OUTLIER WHERE IT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH MUCH FASTER THAN THE CMC AND
GFS. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS AS THE RUN-
TO-RUN VARIABILITY INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE
NBM WILL BE USED FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD, THEN INCORPORATING
MUCH MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES. IN ADDITION, THE NBM SEEMED TO
UNDER-PERFORM FOR THE WARMING TREND OVER MID- ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE A MULTI- MODEL BLEND WAS USEFUL
TO RAISING THE TEMPERATURES.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST ON DAY 4/FRIDAY
WILL HAVE ENOUGH DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EASTERN
KANSAS TO THE GREATER CHICAGO METRO AREA, AND GIVEN A BETTER MODEL
SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE TRAINING AND HEAVIER RAINFALL, A
SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE VALID FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI TO
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN FOR FRIDAY. A MARGINAL RISK AREA WILL BE
VALID FOR DAY 5/SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE WEATHER HEADLINES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN U.S. IN TWO DISTINCT ROUNDS. THE
TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT SOME LINGERING
SNOW FROM NORTHERN UTAH/COLORADO NORTHWARD TO WESTERN MONTANA
FRIDAY, AND SOME LIGHTER SNOWS FOR PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WHEN THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SNOW FOR THE CASCADES AND EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BY MONDAY MORNING, AND SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND NEAR THE COAST.
THE ANOMALOUS AND RECORD BREAKING APRIL HEATWAVE WILL STILL BE
ONGOING FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., WITH THE GREATEST
ANOMALIES EXPECTED FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO GEORGIA ON SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LOWER TO EVEN MIDDLE 90S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, WHICH COULD SET ADDITIONAL DAILY
RECORDS AND PERHAPS COME CLOSE TO SOME MONTHLY RECORDS. THIS ALSO
HOLDS TRUE GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD GET A MODEST COOLING TREND WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH. MORE SUBSTANTIAL RELIEF COMES BY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT STEADILY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST
COAST, WITH THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE PIEDMONT
AND COASTAL PLAIN OF VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS, AND THEN
PLEASANTLY COOLER BY MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE COAST.
OUDIT/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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