659
FXUS02 KWBC 150758
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 12Z SAT APR 18 2026 - 12Z WED APR 22 2026
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT HERALDS
THE END OF THE EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE. HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE SEASONAL READINGS
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A REFRESHING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. OUT WEST, A NEW STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES BY
SUNDAY AND BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE WEST
COAST STATES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH AND THE WEST COAST SYSTEM, BUT NOT TO THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS
WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE FEATURES GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, SO A
GENERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL BLEND WORKS WELL AS A STARTING POINT.
THE UKMET IS STILL A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT REACHING THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT NOT TO THE SAME
DEGREE AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE INCREASED TO
ABOUT 40-50% BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
THE NBM APPEARED TO BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR MOST AREAS
OF THE COUNTRY FOR TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH VALUES WERE RAISED 1-2
DEGREES FROM SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WHERE THERE IS
STRONGER SUPPORT FOR HIGHS ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY. THERE
WAS ALSO A SLIGHT INCREASE MADE WITHIN THE MAIN QPF AXIS AHEAD OF
THE EASTERN U.S. COLD FRONT.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-SOUTH, AND INTO
TEXAS SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRIDOR OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY
FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST, AND A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN VALID HERE FOR THE DAY 4/SATURDAY
OUTLOOK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SECOND MAXIMA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
FROM OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA, AND THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
MARGINAL RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF AMOUNTS TREND UPWARD. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO MONITORING THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
GOING INTO DAY 5/SUNDAY, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. BUT APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, A POTENTIAL
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
ENOUGH RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO LEAD TO SOME 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL ON SUNDAY, AND THEREFORE A MARGINAL RISK AREA WILL BE
VALID HERE. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ALSO BE COMMONPLACE FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND THE CASCADES, AND LIGHTER SNOWS FOR THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE RECORD BREAKING EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE FOR MANY AREAS OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL FINALLY BE COMING TO AN END BY SUNDAY AS THE HUGE
UPPER RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED, AND A COLD FRONT BRINGS A RETURN TO
CONDITIONS MORE TYPICAL OF SPRING TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. THE SUMMER-
LIKE HEAT WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S, AND THEN BY SUNDAY THE
ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHWARD BEFORE THE ENTIRE EAST COAST GETS RELIEF ON MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL TURN RATHER CHILLY FROM MICHIGAN TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. WARMTH RETURNS TO THE PLAINS AS HIGHS REACH
INTO THE 80S FROM WESTERN TEXAS TO NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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