359
FXUS06 KWBC 151932
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 15 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 25 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND
THE VICINITY ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT. A MAIN
DRIVER FOR THIS POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT IS A VERY STRONG ANOMALOUS BLOCKING
RIDGE PREDICTED SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AS TIME
PROGRESSES, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD SUCH THAT BY DAY 10
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA.
IN RESPONSE, PERSISTENT TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING
OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. MEANWHILE, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE ENHANCED MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS TIME PROGRESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, HEIGHTS ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOMALOUS RIDGING OFF THE COAST. PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF ALASKA, CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE MAINLAND. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS
AND GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF ALASKA DUE TO PERSISTENT
TROUGHING. THIS TROUGH HAS TRENDED DEEPER ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MAINLAND, WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, AS
PREDICTED HEIGHT RISES SIGNAL A POTENTIAL TRANSITIONAL PATTERN FROM BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
AS MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER TODAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH. A LARGE AREA
OF ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST, DUE TO PREDICTED RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AFTER A PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN IS
PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AS TIME PROGRESSES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST, DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH INITIALLY PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR DRIVER IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.
THIS TROUGH HAS TRENDED STRONGER IN TODAY'S MODELS, LEADING TO A SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. AS THIS TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AMPLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS. A BROADER AREA OF MODESTLY ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE ANONYMOUS TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY OVER MOST OF ALASKA
DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED
50 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS OF THE SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL MAINLAND, AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
INDICATED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN LATER IN THE PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 - 29 2026
BY WEEK-2, THE TRANSITION TO A NEGATIVE AO/NAO PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL
UNDERWAY AS ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA. IN RESPONSE, REMNANT WEAK RIDGING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. IN ITS PLACE, A
STRONG TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, RESULTING IN FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND TO PERSIST FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
PERIOD. FARTHER TO THE WEST, ANOMALOUS RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF ALASKA, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEASTERLY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA AS CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE MODEST FOR EASTERN AREAS OF
ALASKA AS DAILY MODEL OUTPUT INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
LATER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DUE TO NEARBY RIDGING FORECAST OFF THE COAST.
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. A MODEST TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST, THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A LARGE SWATH OF THE COUNTRY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
THE GREAT LAKES, AND MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, CONSISTENT WITH THE PREDICTED
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO PREDICTED TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS
IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WELL INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PLAINS, AND OHIO VALLEY AS ENHANCED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE GULF PERSISTS AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG, LEADING TO ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, DESPITE THE INCREASINGLY DRY CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
ALASKA DUE TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. CONVERSELY,
THE FORECAST LEANS DRY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BEHIND THE TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020415 - 20200326 - 20210331 - 20030401 - 20210326
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20200325 - 20030401 - 20210330 - 20020417 - 20020412
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 25 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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