554
FXUS02 KWBC 160654
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
VALID 12Z SUN APR 19 2026 - 12Z THU APR 23 2026
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT HERALDS THE END OF THE EARLY SEASON
HEAT WAVE. HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
BE REPLACED BY A REFRESHING AIRMASS BY SUNDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. OUT WEST, A NEW STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES BY SUNDAY AND BRINGS
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE WEST COAST STATES. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BETWEEN THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND THE WEST
COAST SYSTEM, BUT NOT TO THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
U.S., WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND USED FOR FRONTS AND PRESSURES.
THERE ARE SOME PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
WEST COAST GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN FARTHER OFFSHORE, WHILE THE CMC/ECMWF GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE EASTERN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
TROUGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT, WHEREAS THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS
LIKELY TOO AMPLIFIED WITH IT. THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL HIGHER TREND
WITH QPF ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AS MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECASTS. OVERALL, THE
NBM WAS A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH WINDS WERE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, AND POPS WERE RAISED SOME ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WERE INCREASED TO ABOUT 40% BY NEXT
THURSDAY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE EAST COAST SUNDAY/DAY 4 IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NORTHEAST U.S. BUT APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, A POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH
THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO LEAD TO SOME 1-2 INCH RAINFALL ON SUNDAY,
AND THEREFORE A MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS IN PLACE HERE. THE SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR MONDAY/DAY 5 WITH A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ALSO BE
COMMONPLACE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND THE CASCADES,
AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS MAY ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY, BUT
CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR HEAVY NOR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MERIT ANY
RISK AREAS IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
THE RECORD BREAKING EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE FOR MANY AREAS OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE ENTIRE EAST COAST GETS
RELIEF ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL TURN RATHER CHILLY FROM MICHIGAN
TO NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAT BACK UP AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FROM
WESTERN TEXAS TO NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY, AND THIS WARMTH THEN SPREADS
EASTWARD AGAIN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH HIGHS
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY, BUT LESS
EXTREME COMPARED TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.
HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page