090
FXUS02 KWBC 161824
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
VALID 12Z SUN APR 19 2026 - 12Z THU APR 23 2026
..GENERAL OVERVIEW
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT HERALDS THE END OF THE EARLY SEASON
HEAT WAVE. HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY WILL
BE REPLACED BY A COOLER AIRMASS BY SUNDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. OUT WEST, A NEW STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES BY SUNDAY AND BRINGS
ADDITIONAL, AND MOSTLY BENEFICIAL, RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE
WEST COAST STATES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BETWEEN THE EASTERN
U.S. TROUGH AND THE WEST COAST SYSTEM, BUT NOT TO THE SAME
MAGNITUDE AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND EVOLUTION REMAINS
GOOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS. THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY
WAS WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
OFFSHORE THAN THE BETTER CONSENSUS MADE UP OF THE
CMC/ECMWF/UKMET/EC-AIFS AND GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 12Z RUN
OF THE GFS TODAY DID COME IN FASTER, WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT FASTER CONSENSUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AS IT
ENTERS THE WEST AND OPENS IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN, AND THE CMC IS NOTABLY FASTER/FARTHER EAST
THAN THE PREFERRED CONSENSUS.
THE WPC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WAS BASED ON A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, BUT MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 6 AND 7 TO HELP MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES
NOTED ABOVE. FOR THE MOST PART, THIS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST AND THE 13Z NBM SERVED AS A VERY REASONABLE
STARTING POINT FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS ACROSS THE CONUS,
WITH MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NOTED.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY/DAY 4 IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NORTHEAST U.S. BUT APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT MAY LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS, AND WITH ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE IN PLACE, WENT AHEAD WITH A MARGINAL RISK ERO BOTH
SUNDAY/DAY 4 AND MONDAY/DAY 5.
OUT WEST, A POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO LEAD TO SOME 1-2 INCH RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL WITH ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING
IMPACTS EXPECTED. STILL, MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK AREA ON
MONDAY/DAY 5 FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE SOIL MOISTURE
IS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ALSO BE COMMONPLACE FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA AND THE CASCADES, AND EXTENDING
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE RECORD BREAKING EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A
RETURN TO MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH SHOULD THEN
BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWARD INTO
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE ENTIRE EAST COAST GETS RELIEF ON
MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL TURN RATHER CHILLY FROM MICHIGAN TO NEW
ENGLAND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS HEAT BACK UP AS HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FROM WESTERN
TEXAS TO NEBRASKA BY TUESDAY, AND THIS WARMTH THEN SPREADS EASTWARD
AGAIN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY, BUT LESS EXTREME
COMPARED TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.
SANTORELLI/HAMRICK
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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