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FXUS06 KWBC 161939
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU APRIL 16 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE OVERALL
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. HOWEVER, A QUICKLY EVOLVING CIRCULATION PATTERN LEADS TO GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS AND SOME DIFFERENCES
AMONG MODEL TOOLS. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS IS BASED
ON 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO BE VERY AMPLIFIED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND TO
DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE OVER TIME. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, PROGRESSING
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA OVER TIME. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS LARGER POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS RELATIVE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS THE START OF THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD DEAMPLIFIES AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALY IS PREDICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND IN ALL DYNAMICAL
MODELS. AS THIS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY MOVES WESTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA, A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, LATER IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND IN MODEL FORECASTS.
UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND. AS
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RISE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN,
UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, AND SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND
SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH REFORECAST-CALIBRATED AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS, AND A RIDGE AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
OF CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER
RISING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS,
EXCLUDING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN
FORECAST, OFFSET BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
FORECASTS. ALL MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A GREATER AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. A RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, PARTICULARLY BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF CANADA IN ALL MODEL
FORECASTS. ALL MODELS PREDICT CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
HAVE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, AS THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST MODEL TOOLS. UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF AND
GEFS MODEL FORECASTS. AS THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONS DURING THE PERIOD AND
A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS.
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED
FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. AS POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE REGION. AN ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, BY
CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEAST, THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WITH PREDICTED ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY A CHANGING
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020415 - 20200327 - 20210330 - 20030402 - 20180430
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020417 - 20200326 - 20210327 - 20030401 - 20210401
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B N MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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