200
FXUS01 KWBC 170753
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
VALID 12Z FRI APR 17 2026 - 12Z SUN APR 19 2026
...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY...
...LATE SEASON WINTRY WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...
...COLD FRONT TO BRING AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SPRING WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE.
AN UPPER-TROUGH THAT HAS LINGERED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND TRAILING
DRYLINE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WARM, BUOYANT AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5), WITH A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) COVERING THE GENERAL REGION. INCREASING DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL
BE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. IN ADDITION, THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INCREASED LIFT
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1-2" BRINGING THE THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS
OUTLINED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE FROM THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MO/KS/AR/OK WHERE GROUND
CONDITIONS ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
BEYOND THE NOTED THUNDERSTORM THREATS, WINTER WEATHER STILL
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST, WITH A WINTRY MIX LIKELY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WEST
OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAS ALSO PROMPTED A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE SPC FOR FRIDAY.
THE UPPER-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EAST ON SATURDAY, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. LESS INSTABILITY AND THE EXPECTATION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOSTLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT WILL BRING A LOWER FLASH FLOOD RISK AS WELL,
WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST
ON SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS AN UPPER-WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY.
THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. UNDER A PROMINENT UPPER-RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ONE MORE
DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NOTED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO BRING MUCH
COOLER, GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
80S ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND 80S TO LOW 90S SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH
AND 60S AND 70S TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR HIGHS TO THE
EAST THROUGHOUT THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL FALL TO THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SEE A
WARM-UP FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH AND AS
UPPER-RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN. BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR WEST WILL RISE FROM THE 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY INTO
THE 60S BY SATURDAY AND 70S SUNDAY. CHILLY HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SATURDAY WILL
JUMP INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY BY SUNDAY. THE WEST COAST WILL
REMAIN MORE TEMPERATE AND AROUND AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND 60S AND 70S INTO CALIFORNIA.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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