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FXUS06 KWBC 171902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 17 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 - 27 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA
AND THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN, PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS) AND BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER TIME. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY
IS PREDICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND IN ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS. POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RISE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ENHANCED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF
CALIBRATED MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS UNDER RISING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS, EXCLUDING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
FOLLOW AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA.
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - MAY 01, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MEAN
PATTERN STILL FAVORS TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
BERING SEA, THE ALEUTIANS AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. A
RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER EASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA TO PROGRESS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A TROUGH AND WEAK BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PREDICTED
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII
AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS. UNDER RISING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
WEST IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS MODEL FORECASTS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
VALLEY, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS.
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED
FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND ALASKA, AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. AS POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPAND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS PREDICTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS
IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, BY CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS FROM
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020415 - 20210328 - 20200328 - 20180501 - 20110411
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020417 - 20210327 - 20200327 - 20180430 - 20020412
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - MAY 01, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA B N WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N N OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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