105
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN APRIL 19 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - 29 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PREDICTED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND ARE
CONSISTENT ON UNDERLYING VARIATIONS IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE ECMWF MODEL
STRONGER DUE TO ITS RECENT HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SKILL. THE MANUAL BLEND
INDICATES A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA
AND THE ALEUTIANS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN, PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
(CONUS) AND BRITISH COLUMBIA OVER TIME. A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY IS PREDICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
GREENLAND IN ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS. WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MODEL FORECASTS.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS,
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS. AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RISE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS, PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED MODEL
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS AND POSITIVE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND
ALASKA AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UNDER RISING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND CONSISTENT WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS A
LARGE AREA OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50
PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER PREDICTED CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FOLLOW AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY SURFACE MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
AMERICA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE AMPLIFIED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 27 - MAY 03, 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8â14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, WITH SOME
DEAMPLIFICATION OF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
THE 6â10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. THE MEAN
PATTERN STILL FAVORS TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA,
PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A TROUGH AND WEAK
BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ANOTHER
TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS,
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING WEEK 2, IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS.
UNDER RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CONUS WITH PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH MOST MODEL TOOLS.
DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION. AS POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA, WHERE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED), IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
PREDICTED TROUGH AND PREDICTED ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020416 - 20210330 - 20180502 - 20040418 - 20230405
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210329 - 20020417 - 20180502 - 20020412 - 20250426
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - 29 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 27 - MAY 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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