929
FXUS06 KWBC 201912
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 20 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - 30 2026
THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE OVERALL
AVERAGE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, AS WELL AS UNDERLYING VARIATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT
BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS IS BASED ON 0Z ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEIGHTING THE
ECMWF MODEL GREATER DUE TO RECENT MODEL SKILL. ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THAT
DEAMPLIFIES OVER TIME. A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS SLIGHTLY
LARGER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS) RELATIVE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TO
THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
DURING THE PERIOD, THE TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE SOUTHWEST, WHILE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED
ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST, AND OVER THE WESTERN
GULF COAST IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, UNDER
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR MOST MAINLAND ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE SOUTH COAST UNDER SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW, AND FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM MOST OF TEXAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, UNDER WEAK RIDGING AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, WITH POSITIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE VICINITY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND MAINLAND
ALASKA, UNDER AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS
OF NORTHWESTERN OREGON AND WESTERN WASHINGTON, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM CALIFORNIA EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS AHEAD OF PREDICTED TROUGHS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL CONUS, EXCLUDING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED
50 PERCENT FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS, ALTHOUGH
PREDICTED PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE RELATIVELY SMALL. PROBABILITIES FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN, OFFSET
BY A CHANGING CIRCULATION PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 28 - MAY 04, 2026
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT SOME PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE FEATURES FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD FORECASTS, ALONG WITH WEAKENING OF ANOMALIES AND SOME CHANGES IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST
BUT DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE ALEUITIANS. A RIDGE PERSISTS INTO THE WEEK-2
PERIOD OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES WEAKEN. WITH INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS, WEAK TROUGHING IS
PRESENT OVER CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MANUAL BLEND FOR WEEK
2. A TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, IN DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
AS WELL AS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE CALIFORNIA COAST, UNDER RISING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE NORTHEAST,
EXCLUDING NORTHERN MAINE, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
SURROUNDED BY POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND ALASKA IN
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, UNDER AND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT
WITH CALIBRATED ECMWF MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. AHEAD OF PREDICTED
TROUGHING, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED INTO THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND ACROSS
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FORECAST, OFFSET BY WEAKER
ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECASTS AND UNCERTAINTY
AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180502 - 20210331 - 20040417 - 20020416 - 20090425
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210330 - 20180502 - 20020417 - 20040417 - 20030401
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 28 - MAY 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B N WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page