122
NOUS41 KWBC 211400
PNSWSH
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT 26-34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS SILVER SPRING MD
1000 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
OTHER NWS PARTNERS AND EMPLOYEES
FROM: KATHYRN GILBERT, DEPUTY DIRECTOR
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
SUBJECT: SOLICITING COMMENTS ON THE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK
PROTOTYPE THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2026
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IS SOLICITING COMMENTS ON THE
PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK PROTOTYPE THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30, 2026.
THE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK PROTOTYPE PROVIDES A BROADER
UNDERSTANDING OF THE RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES WHEN IT COMES
TO HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK IS BASED ON THE
NWS HEATRISK FRAMEWORK, WHICH PROVIDES A FORECAST RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS USING A FIVE-TIER SCALE. HEATRISK COMBINES A
CONSISTENT, SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH THAT LEVERAGES GENERALIZED
HEAT-HEALTH SCIENCE WITH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY AND HEAT-HEALTH
STATISTICS TO PRODUCE A DAILY VALUE OF EXPECTED HEAT RISK FOR
EACH 24-HOUR PERIOD.
THE OUTPUT OF PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK IS CALCULATED BY PAIRING
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (MAXT) AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (MINT)
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE REAL-TIME RESTRICTED MESOANALYSIS
(RTMA) AND UNRESTRICTED MESOANALYSIS (URMA) WITH MAXT/MINT
FORECASTS OBTAINED FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) FROM
WHICH CATEGORICAL STATISTICS ARE COMPUTED FOR EACH DAY IN THE
UPCOMING TEN DAY FORECAST.
THE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK PROTOTYPE CAN BE ACCESSED BY AN
INTERACTIVE VIEWER HOSTED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK/PROBS/
A DESCRIPTION OF THE PROBABILISTIC HEATRISK PRODUCT AND PRODUCT
EXAMPLES CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
HTTPS://NSDESK.SERVICENOWSERVICES.COM/API/G_NOA/NWSPC/RES2/D0180
DC39714CB508881BB7DE053AF58
INPUT AND FEEDBACK CAN BE PROVIDED VIA THIS LINK:
HTTPS://WWW.SURVEYMONKEY.COM/R/NWSPROBABILISTICHEATRISKPROTOTYPE
_2026
ADDITIONAL COMMENTS MAY BE SENT TO:
PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES PROGRAM
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
COLLEGE PARK, MD
PUBLIC.PROGRAM@NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS ARE ONLINE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NOTIFICATION/
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page