511
FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 22 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 28 - MAY 02, 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE
ALASKA-YUKON BORDER WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
SIBERIA. THIS INTRODUCES SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE STATE. UNDERCUTTING
THIS RIDGE IS A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. MEANWHILE, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF CONUS
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, THE GULF, AND INTO FLORIDA.
WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS,
THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL EXCEED 50% IN
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS QUITE THE DEPARTURE
FROM THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL APRIL IN THIS REGION. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IS
FAVORED FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF DUE TO A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND NORTHERN MEXICO. IN THE
WEST, THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED. IN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-WESTERN
MAINLAND WHERE CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND, WHERE CLIMATOLOGIES ARE HIGHER.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH LOW CLIMATOLOGIES IN
MUCH OF THE REGION. FURTHER EAST, REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. A SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL IS FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST GUIDANCE, OFFSET
BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 06, 2026
DURING WEEK-2, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TOOLS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN PARTICULARLY OVER ALASKA AND THE
WESTERN CONUS. THE ECENS PROGRESSES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST AND GREATLY
DIMINISHES THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ANOMALIES. HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND CMCE MAINTAIN
A MUCH MORE STABLE RIDGE OVER ALASKA. ALL OF THESE TOOLS MAINTAIN A BLOCKING
RIDGE SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND A NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN. THEREFORE, THE MANUAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND FAVORS THE PERSISTENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ALASKA,
ALTHOUGH WITH REDUCED AMPLITUDE RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS
CONTINUING INTO WEEK-2, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL EXCEED 50% OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND GREAT
LAKES. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IS FAVORED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST, RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND FLORIDA WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
IN THE WEST, THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE, EXCEPT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA COAST WHERE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. IN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND WHERE CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COUNTRY. IN THE WESTERN CONUS, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE NORMAL IS FAVORED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUING TO UNDERCUT ANY
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY
PERSISTING INTO WEEK-2 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI,
TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TO THIS AREA. BELOW NORMAL IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WHERE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY. ELSEWHERE, NEAR-NORMAL
IS FAVORED WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. BELOW NORMAL REMAINS
WEAKLY FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING. MEANWHILE, IN
HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, OFFSET BY VERY POOR AGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE HEIGHT FORECAST OVER ALASKA.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090424 - 20040416 - 20180502 - 20140410 - 20180427
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180502 - 20040417 - 20180427 - 20020505 - 20250427
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 28 - MAY 02, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO N N NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 06, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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