902
FXUS02 KWBC 222002
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VALID 12Z SAT APR 25 2026 - 12Z WED APR 29 2026
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAIN REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH THE MID-
LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK,
BOLSTERING FORECASY CONFIDENCE. A BROAD COMPOSITE BLEND OF THE
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS AND GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH EC-AIFS MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO PROVIDE A SOLID FORECAST BASIS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH NATIONAL
BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH MEDIUM-RANGE TIME SCALES FOR MOST
AREAS. THIS SOLUTION TENDS TO ADDRESS LINGERING SMALLER SCALE
GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY
IN AN EFFORT TO MAINTAIN BEST POSSIBLE PRODUCT CONTINUITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A SURFACE LOW AND WAVY FRONT WILL WORK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE EAST THIS WEEKEND. LEAD RETURN FLOW ALONG WITH UPPER-
LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN U.S. TO THE EAST AS
DIVERTED UNDERNEATH A COOLING AND SLOW TO EXIT NORTHEAST U.S. TO
CANADIAN MARITIME CLOSED LOW/TROUGH.
UPSTREAM, A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SETTLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY
THE WEEKEND, CARRYING MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH NORTHERN TIER SECONDARY FRONTAL
PASSAGES AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONSET. THIS WILL BRING A LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN AND A TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW FOCUS INTO PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AND SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE,
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DUG OFF THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY WILL
EJECT IN SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINVIGORATE A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ALONG/NORTH OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TRACK FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE ROCKIES, LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH A THREAT OF HIGH WINDS AND GAP WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
DOWNSTREAM WITH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS, EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIDE SPREAD CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO NEXT MIDWEEK,
WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN
TRAILING FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A MARGINAL RISK AREA
IN DAY 4/SATURDAY AND DAY 5/SUNDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(ERO). MEANWHILE, AS THE PRIMARY LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A BROAD REGION OF PRECIPITATION AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MIX OF ENHANCED STRATIFORM RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
OUDIT/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS, QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY MESSAGES ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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