966
FXUS06 KWBC 231902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU APRIL 23 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 29 - MAY 03, 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE
ALASKA-YUKON BORDER WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
AND SIBERIA. THIS INTRODUCES SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE STATE.
UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGE IS A WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). ANOTHER, DEEPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF CONUS OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO, THE GULF, AND INTO FLORIDA.
WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL EXCEED 50% IN THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS QUITE THE DEPARTURE FROM
THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL APRIL IN THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC STATES AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND BENEATH A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN THE WEST,
TOOLS HAVE TRENDED WARMER TODAY RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. IN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE. THE
EXCEPTION IS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTH-WESTERN MAINLAND WHERE CLOUDY
CONDITIONS MAY LIMIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND, WHERE CLIMATOLOGIES ARE HIGHER.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BRINGS INCREASED CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH LOW CLIMATOLOGIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. FURTHER EAST, A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING ELEVATED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC COAST,
AND NORTHEAST. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST CONSISTENT
WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST GUIDANCE, OFFSET
BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 - 07 2026
DURING WEEK-2, TOOLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER TROUGH
RIDGE DIPOLE OVER ALASKA AND NORTHWEST CANADA, WHICH SUPPORTS THE COMPROMISE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN GREENLAND. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. IN GENERAL, TOOLS ARE FAVORING A WEAK RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, BUT ZONAL FLOW IS THE FAVORED FORECAST PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 ACROSS MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY, MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
IN HAWAII, WEAKLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS
CONTINUING INTO WEEK-2, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50%
OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. IN THE WEST, AS
IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEAK
RIDGING TO DEVELOP. IN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS PARTS OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WHERE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN WITH LOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. IN THE WESTERN CONUS, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL IS
FAVORED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE WEAK RIDGING TAKES
OVER. ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD, AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, COULD TIP THE
BALANCE TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AS FAVORED BY THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN
PARTS OF MAINE AND FLORIDA WHERE A LINGERING FRONTAL FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED, WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND, CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE STATE. BELOW NORMAL REMAINS
WEAKLY FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST ALASKA BENEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING. MEANWHILE, IN
HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, OFFSET BY VERY POOR AGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE HEIGHT FORECAST OVER ALASKA.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090424 - 20040416 - 20040507 - 20140411 - 19980502
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20180502 - 20040417 - 20180427 - 20090424 - 20250427
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 29 - MAY 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA B B WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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