636
FXUS01 KWBC 240800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 12Z FRI APR 24 2026 - 12Z SUN APR 26 2026
...THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE ALSO
SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TOMORROW. TODAY, THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERCEPTS AN
INCOMING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES FROM
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH IS WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST WHERE STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA ON FRIDAY, AND AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY AS STRONGER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER A SIMILAR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK
HIGHLIGHTED IN TONIGHT'S DAY 3 OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
ALSO EXPAND TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT, ALBEIT WITHOUT SEVERE OR HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S
FROM VIRGINIA TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S., AND TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER
GOING INTO SATURDAY. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND MORE CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE, A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BEHIND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT, AND AFFECT MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS WITH
MARCH-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS. IN FACT, A HANDFUL OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS, WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES, AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FROM
COLORADO TO THE MEXICO BORDER BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUE AMID ONGOING DROUGHT. AS SUCH,
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY, WITH RED
FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS.
ASHERMAN/HAMRICK
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