759
FXUS01 KWBC 240803
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VALID 12Z FRI APR 24 2026 - 12Z SUN APR 26 2026
...THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...GUSTY WINDS AND WARM, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE ALSO
SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. TOMORROW. TODAY, THE GREATEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTERCEPTS AN
INCOMING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT THE PLAINS. THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR RAINFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1-3 INCHES FROM
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, WHICH IS WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST WHERE STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THIS SAME GENERAL AREA ON FRIDAY, AND AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY AS STRONGER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER A SIMILAR AREA ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK
HIGHLIGHTED IN TONIGHT'S DAY 3 OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
ALSO EXPAND TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT, ALBEIT WITHOUT SEVERE OR HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS.
WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER FOR LATE APRIL WILL PERSIST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S FROM VIRGINIA TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S., AND TRENDING SLIGHTLY
COOLER GOING INTO SATURDAY. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD REMAIN CONSIDERABLY
COOLER WITH FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND MORE CLOUD COVER.
MEANWHILE, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL OOZE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT, AND AFFECT MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS
WITH MARCH-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS. IN FACT, A HANDFUL OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS,
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FROM
COLORADO TO THE MEXICO BORDER BEHIND THE DRYLINE AS GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY CONTINUE AMID ONGOING DROUGHT. AS SUCH,
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TODAY,
WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS.
ASHERMAN/HAMRICK
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