871
FXUS06 KWBC 241902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 24 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 04, 2026
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE ALASKA-YUKON BORDER.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA BY SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
WOULD BRING SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE STATE. ANOTHER, DEEPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE FAVORED SOUTH OF CONUS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, THE GULF, AND INTO FLORIDA. IN
THE WEST, ZONAL FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS APPEARS LIKE THE MOSTLY LIKELY OUTCOME
AT THIS TIME WITH A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII, WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OFF TO THE EAST.
WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL EXCEED 60% IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS QUITE THE
DEPARTURE FROM THE MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL APRIL IN THIS REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WEST, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. IN
ALASKA, SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE EXCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA WITH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALL
FAVORING NEAR NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER
EAST. A WEAK CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BRINGS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE FAVORS ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY
EARLY IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS FRONT ALSO BRINGS ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST GUIDANCE, OFFSET
BY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 08 2026
DURING WEEK-2, TOOLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER WESTERN CANADA.
FORECAST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN GREENLAND AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN GENERAL, TOOLS ARE FAVORING A
WEAKLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT ZONAL
FLOW IS THE FAVORED FLOW PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. IN HAWAII, WEAKLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST.
WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS
CONTINUING INTO WEEK-2, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE PLAINS, EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50% OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO
VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST. IN THE PLAINS, A TRANSITION ZONE IS NOTED WITH BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, NEAR ACROSS THE MIDDLE, AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. IN THE WEST, AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING FAVORED TO
DEVELOP. IN ALASKA, SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. THE EXCEPTION IS PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY.
THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN WITH LOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL IS
FAVORED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD, AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, COULD TIP THE BALANCE
TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE EAST AND
GULF COASTS DUE TO A PREDICTED LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS, NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
AMONGST THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MAINLAND WITH NEAR NORMAL FAVORED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE STATE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
MEANWHILE, IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, OFFSET BY VERY POOR AGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE HEIGHT FORECAST OVER ALASKA DESPITE SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090424 - 20020430 - 19980503 - 20040508 - 20040416
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20090424 - 20180427 - 20020501 - 20040415 - 20040507
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 30 - MAY 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 08 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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