734
FXUS06 KWBC 251901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SAT APRIL 25 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 - 05 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A SLOW MOVING 500-HPA PATTERN PUNCTUATED BY A
STRONG ANOMALOUS BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE
SUPPORTS LONG-DURATION TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MAIN DRIVERS
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN ARE AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ALASKA
SOUTHWARD TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE PREDICTED BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LOCK IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, DUE TO STUBBORN TROUGHING. NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE STRENGTHENED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A RIDGE
PREDICTED JUST OFFSHORE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST
OF ALASKA, AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PROLONGED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXCEED 40 PERCENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP. CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO EXCEED 40 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE, DUE TO
PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONVERSELY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, DUE TO ANOMALOUS
RIDGING FORECAST JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS
TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW-MOVING BLOCKING PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 03 - 09 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE STRONG RIDGE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE TOWARD NORTHEASTERN CANADA. DURING THIS RIDGE EVOLUTION, STRONG
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. UPSTREAM RIDGING IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS
THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OVER THE BERING SEA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII.
A LONG DURATION UNSEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IS FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE APPALACHIANS,
AND MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION YIELD A STRONG COLD SIGNAL. SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS THE ONLY REGION EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOMINALLY FAVORED. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING PUSHES
INLAND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF
ALASKA, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED BERING SEA TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY REGARDING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN DURING WEEK-2. AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST, DESPITE THE DRY CLIMATOLOGIES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AS WEAK ANOMALOUS RIDGING TRAVERSES THE AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE EAST AND GULF COAST, EXTENDING
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW. PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT
TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20020430 - 19980503 - 20090425 - 19890423 - 20010405
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980503 - 20020430 - 20090424 - 20040414 - 20040508
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 - 05 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 03 - 09 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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