927
FXUS06 KWBC 261902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT SUN APRIL 26 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 06 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A SLOW MOVING 500-HPA PATTERN PUNCTUATED BY A
STRONG ANOMALOUS BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE LABRADOR SEA. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE
SUPPORTS LONG-DURATION TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MAIN DRIVERS
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN ARE AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER EASTERN ALASKA. A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM IS FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE PREDICTED BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LOCK IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER REGIME FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE WEAKENED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
DECREASED CONFIDENCE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
RIDGE PREDICTED JUST OFFSHORE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MOST OF ALASKA, AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII, DUE PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE
NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PROLONGED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA, WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF MAINE, DUE TO
PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. CONVERSELY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY,
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, DUE TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING OFF THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTS INCREASED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING PREDICTED
OVER THE BERING SEA. HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW-MOVING BLOCKING PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 04 - 10 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE STRONG RIDGE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND IS PREDICTED
TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE DAVIS STRAIT. DURING THIS RIDGE EVOLUTION, STRONG
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE PREDICTED UPSTREAM RIDGE IS NOTICEABLY STRONGER TODAY RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS NOW
FORECAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS RIDGE EVOLUTION
RESULTS IN HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS ALASKA RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE BERING
SEA. MEANWHILE, FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC IS
FORECAST TO IMPINGE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
A LONG DURATION UNSEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IS FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE TELECONNECTIONS FROM
THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION YIELD A STRONG COLD SIGNAL. SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS THE
ONLY REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
NOMINALLY FAVORED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST
DUE TO STRONG RIDGING PREDICTED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST
OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED BERING
SEA TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS HAWAII.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY REGARDING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN DURING WEEK-2. AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD
OF IT SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN,
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, DESPITE THE DRY CLIMATOLOGIES FOR SOME OF
THESE AREAS THIS TIME OF YEAR. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST,
SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. PREDICTED
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
UPPER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF
WESTERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM
THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20160510 - 20210412 - 19950425 - 20120407 - 20190503
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980503 - 20010405 - 20100413 - 20020429 - 20190503
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 02 - 06 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE N A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 04 - 10 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B B OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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