195
FXUS06 KWBC 271902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 27 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 03 - 07 2026
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A SLOW MOVING 500-HPA PATTERN PUNCTUATED BY A
STRONG ANOMALOUS BLOCKING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF GREENLAND TO SOUTHERN
AREAS OF BAFFIN ISLAND. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE SUPPORTS LONG-DURATION TROUGHING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MAIN DRIVER IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN IS AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A
WEAKENING TROUGH IS FORECAST UPSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
THE PREDICTED BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LOCK IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
WEATHER REGIME FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
(GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A RIDGE PREDICTED JUST
OFFSHORE. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA,
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS RIDGING AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE
BERING SEA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII, DUE
PRIMARILY TO OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE ADJACENT PACIFIC.
THE PROLONGED TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
EXCEED 50 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA, WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DUE TO
PREDICTED TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY, EASTERN GREAT LAKES, NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC, AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, DUE TO PREDICTED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CONVERSELY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, DUE TO ANOMALOUS RIDGING FORECAST
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING FORECAST TO
PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS SUPPORTS INCREASED ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOMALOUS TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA. HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA, DUE TO PREDICTED
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
MODEL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW-MOVING BLOCKING PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 11 2026
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE STRONG RIDGE OVER BAFFIN ISLAND IS PREDICTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE. AS A RESULT, STRONG ANOMALOUS TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE PREDICTED RIDGE OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE MAINLAND. THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE RESULTS IN PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST
OF ALASKA. A WEAKENING TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE BERING SEA. MEANWHILE,
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WEAK TRANSIENT RIDGING IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
FEATURE, CONSISTENT WITH MODEST HEIGHT RISES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. NEAR NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
A LONG DURATION UNSEASONABLY COLD PATTERN IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY, WHERE TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION YIELD A STRONG COLD SIGNAL. SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS THE ONLY REGION
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST DUE TO STRONG RIDGING
PREDICTED OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGE
FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (GREATER
THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE) OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE. NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE
FORECAST OVER THE MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS
HAWAII.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY REGARDING THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN DURING WEEK-2. AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST. PREDICTED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF IT
SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, DESPITE DRY CLIMATOLOGIES FOR
SOME OF THESE AREAS THIS TIME OF YEAR. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE ADJACENT MID-ATLANTIC DUE TO PREDICTED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE GULF COAST REGION AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF WESTERN ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO PERSISTENT RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND
CONSISTENT WITH CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N") NORMAL.
LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE
LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (GRAY, "N")
NORMAL. LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF
THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS
REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20210412 - 20160511 - 20120407 - 19950425 - 20240502
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010406 - 20100413 - 20190503 - 20120407 - 20160510
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 03 - 07 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 11 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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