017
FOUS11 KWBC 271911
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
VALID 00Z TUE APR 28 2026 - 00Z FRI MAY 01 2026
..CENTRAL ROCKIES
DAYS 1 & 3...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL RACE E/NE FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY 00Z/WEDNESDAY (END OF D1). DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IMPULSE,
PERSISTENT BUT WEAK 700MB WAA WILL SURGE MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, ESPECIALLY NORTH-CENTRAL COLORADO, LEADING TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL THE FIRST HALF OF D1 BEFORE FORCING
EJECTS TO THE EAST. SNOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WILL FALL BENEATH
THE TRANSLATING IMPULSE, BUT REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT, SUGGESTING THAT
ANY IMPACTED TRAVEL WILL ONLY BE ACROSS THE HIGHER PASSES OF THE CO
ROCKIES. THIS IS REFLECTED ADDITIONALLY BY WPC PROBABILITIES THAT
ARE ABOVE 50% FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW ONLY ACROSS THE PARK RANGE AND
MEDICINE BOW RANGE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
AFTER A BREAK ON D2, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPULSE WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION D3 BRINGING RENEWED SNOWFALL ONCE AGAIN TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THIS SECOND SYSTEM BEGINS AS A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
NEAR BAJA WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT THEN QUICKLY OPENS AND EJECTS EAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /00Z
FRIDAY/. WHILE THE DIRECT HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA FROM THIS IMPULSE
WILL REMAIN SW OF THE REGION ON D3, INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE 700MB
WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
INTERACT WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO PUSH
MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE CO ROCKIES ONCE AGAIN. AT THE SAME TIME,
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE (WITH
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT) INTO CO FROM THE GULF/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY THE LATTER HALF
OF D3, WITH SNOW FALLING ABOVE 8000 FT. THIS COULD END UP AS A
SIGNIFICANT HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW EVENT CONTINUING INTO D4, BUT FOR
D3, CURRENT WPC PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (>70%) FOR 6+ INCHES ONLY
IN THE HIGHER FRONT RANGE, INCLUDING PIKE'S PEAK, AND PORTIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH IS
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
WEISS
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