506
FXCA20 KWBC 272011
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 APRIL 2026 AT 2010 UTC:
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS...
ON MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE UNITED STATES EASTERN
SEABOARD EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
FAVORING A REGION OF ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER HISPANIOLA,
PUERTO RICO/VI, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENTERING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS REGION BY THE
EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, MUCH OF THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL
REMAIN BELOW 35MM IN PUERTO RICO/VI AND LESS THAN 25MM IN
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THE BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT LESS THAN 10MM. ON
TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN WEAKENS,
FRAGMENTING WITH A FASTER PORTION OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, AND
A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, DIGGING
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA BY TUESDAY EVENING. TO THE EAST, THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND GIVES WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT, WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN
THE MID LEVELS, A RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES INTO THE CARIBBEAN,
GIVING WAY TO ENHANCED TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS COVERING MUCH OF
THE REGION. PUERTO RICO/VI AND HISPANIOLA COULD EXPECT MODERATE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS, WHILE CUBA AND JAMAICA COULD EXPECT TRACE TO
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY, RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA, FAVORING ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. WITH LITTLE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION CAPS AND ZONAL
FLOW, EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS IN
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTH CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE PRESENCE OF A PROPAGATING LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA ON MONDAY WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN THE REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL FEATURE
WILL HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTERACTING WITH THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS INTERACTION ON MONDAY WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COLOMBIA, PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TO THE WEST SLOWLY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO THE DARIEN REGION AND NORTH COLOMBIA ON
TUESDAY, FAVORING MAXIMA OF 20-45MM, WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THE INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR, EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE GULF OF
PANAMA IN THE EVENING HOURS, AND BRINGS HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER INTO CENTRAL PANAMA, ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE
OF THE CARIBBEAN LLJ, WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM, AND HIGHER LOCALIZED
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.
MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE INCREASED DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, MEXICO, AND MUCH OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA, DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WHILE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRACE TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN MEXICO, ALONG THE
NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DRY LINE AND
HEAT TROUGHING. SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR MAY SEE SOME
WEAK MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH WINDS COMING FROM
THE WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CASTELLANOS...(WPC)
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