529
FXUS01 KWBC 280801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
VALID 12Z TUE APR 28 2026 - 12Z THU APR 30 2026
...SEVERAL DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER
THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, MID-SOUTH, AND GULF COAST...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT IN
PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH CONTINUE TO MAKE
WEATHER HEADLINES, WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON BOTH FRONTS EXPECTED
ROUGHLY ALONG A MEMPHIS TO DALLAS CORRIDOR. MUCH OF THIS AREA
COULD WAKE UP TO THUNDER AS AN INITIAL ROUND OF CELLS DEVELOP THIS
MORNING AND QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD AND CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX.
OWING TO THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AVAILABLE FOR THESE
STORMS TO TAP INTO, SEVERE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND HIGH RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, A SECOND, POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK ACROSS
A SIMILAR AREA. THIS SECOND BATCH WILL CARRY THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND A GREATER FLASH FLOODING RISK AS
THEY TRAIN AND OVERLAP WITH EACH OTHER. TOMORROW, THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH
FORTUNATELY THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER PER THE LATEST CONVECTIVE AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOKS, WHICH BOTH HIGHLIGHT A MARGINAL RISK. TO THE
EAST, THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND GUST. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE STALLED
FRONT IN TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH
A DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
AS SEVERAL DAYS OF OVERLAPPING THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO SATURATE THE
SOIL IN THE REGION.
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUES AS DRY AIRMASS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE RECOVERY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND DRY FUELS, PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF NORTHERN
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN-EASTERN NEW MEXICO HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR THE REST OF MONDAY, WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
MUCH OF TEXAS INTO PARTS OF OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
FOR TODAY, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BRING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST A UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
ASHERMAN/OUDIT
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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